Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing As the British and Russian Empires expanded into Central Asia in the 19th century, remote and seemingly irrelevant Afghanistan became contested. Each side sent emissaries to parley with its tribes and peoples. Ever since the days of Durand, Kipling, and Ignatiev, foreign powers have vied for influence Read More …
Brian M Downing Gunmen attacked an IRGC parade in Iran’s Khuzestan province two weeks ago, killing 29 people and injuring twice that. An Arab separatist group has claimed responsibility, and so has ISIL. Tehran immediately blamed Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and foreign backers. Earlier this week, the IRGC replied with Read More …
Brian M Downing The last few months have seen numerous demonstrations in Iraq – some large and violent. They protest government incompetence and corruption but often mask the designs of the mercurial Muqtada al Sadr. Scion of a family of revered Shia clerics who opposed Saddam Hussein, Sadr has at Read More …
Brian M Downing Regime strengthened The entente’s efforts to weaken the Iranian government may have the reverse effect, especially if more aggressive actions are taken. The importance attached to urban middle classes is overestimated owing to their parallels to westernized people and an attendant faith that they must represent Iran’s Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have been engaged in conflict since the Khomeini Revolution of 1979 and the Iran-Iraq War that began the following year. Washington may think it can limit involvement to supplying arms and intelligence with an occasional skirmish and airstrike. But the US risks deeper involvement and Read More …
Brian M Downing Relations between the US and Russia have declined badly since Putin’s invasion of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Trump administration is determined to bring rapprochement. The contours of an arrangement seem to be reducing sanctions on Russia in exchange for its cooperation against Iran – a Read More …
Brian M Downing Jordan has been in the background while much of the Middle East has burned and raged. It experienced no upheaval as in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. ISIL’s presence isn’t strong in Jordan, though it has pockets of support. The Jordanian military is playing a role in fighting Read More …
Brian M Downing Arms sales are increasingly important in world affairs – to buyers and sellers alike. The US isn’t in lockstep with the Gulf monarchies against Iran because of oil imports. American imports from the Middle East have dwindled over the last two decades or so. The tilt is Read More …
Brian M Downing Since its remarkable offensive of 2014, ISIL has been steadily worn down by Kurdish and Arab forces in Syria and by special forces and militias in Iraq. Both campaigns relied heavily on American support. ISIL retains positions in eastern Syria and western Iraq and was able to Read More …
Brian M Downing Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s and took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but picked up Read More …