Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing American security interests in the Middle East are declining, yet US troop levels there are rising. By mid-century the region will not be as important to world energy supplies or rivalries with Russia and China. Israel faces no coherent enemies. The Arab world will be plagued by Read More …
Brian M Downing The US and China are heading for a trade war, though Washington’s positions are subject to sudden change. The depth and duration of the conflict can’t be gauged but concerns are mounting that it might cause a global recession or worsen an impending one. The contest takes Read More …
Brian M Downing Presidents Trump and Xi have bickered over trade for two years. The US claims China has excessive trade surpluses, manipulates its currency, and steals intellectual property. The bickering seems to be escalating into a trade war. However, there’s so little consistency in Washington today that a Read More …
Brian M Downing Last spring youthful demonstrators filled the streets to protest Beijing’s effort to consolidate its grip. The population of the former British colony is accustomed to representative government and the rule of law and sees Beijing determined to impose its authoritarian will. Democratic movements are also taking Read More …
Brian M Downing Venezuela is important to the Trump administration, at least occasionally. There is no discernible strategy on what to do and focus comes and goes, as with many things. Focus seems to have lessened significantly since the US called for Maduro’s ouster, set up food distribution points on Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the last week Iran has been accused of attacking more oil tankers near its shores. It responded to the deepening tensions by announcing intentions to exceed uranium-enrichment limits set by the JCPOA – an agreement the US walked away from long ago. The US is blaming Read More …
Brian M Downing The Trump foreign policy team came to power amid growing competition between the US and a Sino-Russian alignment. That alignment is determined to reduce American power in the world and replace it with their own. The competition has been underway since China emerged as an economic power Read More …
Brian M Downing This week marks thirty years since the remarkable student demonstrations in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. The movement is often seen as a pivotal moment in China’s history. A potent democratic opposition challenged a statist leadership. It was crushed by the People’s Liberation Army. Estimates vary but at least Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming years, a decade or two at most, domestic fiscal and political pressures will force a pullback from many of the US military bases in some eighty-five countries across the globe. For reasons elaborated upon earlier, Persian Gulf bases might be on the cut list. Oil Read More …
Brian M Downing China has been expanding its presence across the world, especially in Africa and South Asia. The Chinese see the process as a welcome and even inevitable historical process whereby they reattain their rightful place as center of the world. Of course, not everyone sees this in the Read More …