Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing President Biden will have his hands full. A slew of domestic problems await him. The same holds for international ones. China and Russia will present new problems and exacerbate old ones. The confrontation will take place at a pivotal moment in history. One great power is facing Read More …
Brian M Downing Biden’s foreign policy team has a lot of work to do. Its predecessors relied on the counsel of inexperienced loyalists and relatives, slighted long-standing allies, and acted arbitrarily and inconsistently. Iran will be important. The Trump administration walked away from the JCPOA and climbed the escalation tree. Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian view Russian political culture has been shaped by devastating Mongol, Lithuanian, Polish, Swedish, French, and German invasions. Russian villagers have had to scan open horizons for signs of danger. Rulers in the Kremlin have had to do the same. Events along the periphery today are Read More …
Brian M Downing A powerful but uneasy alliance At the outset of this century, Russia was still recovering from the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The military and state were in disarray, the economy was struggling with the transition to private ownership, several SSRs had declared independence, and Read More …
Brian M Downing Foreign policy is a long game. It’s been going on for millennia. Major powers come and go, alliances are forged and break down. The US, Russia, and China have been friends and enemies in just the last century. Things change and the circumstances of today between those Read More …
Brian M Downing Beijing faces pressures to retake Taiwan. There are important military and political reasons for China to ignore them and tamp down on the hawks. Nonetheless, the PLA may be given the order. The battle will be long and costly and the PLA may have to retreat ignobly Read More …
Brian M Downing Uncertainties of war Churchill noted that wars never proceed as expected. He would know. The Chinese war party in the politburo and general staff might well think hard about his warning. They are inexperienced with actual war and prone to overconfidence and optimistic scenarios. Perhaps they’ve read Read More …
Brian M Downing Conflicts are raging from the Maghreb to the Caucasus to Central Asia. Concerns are mounting that another will soon erupt in East Asia. China is exerting pressure on Taiwan – a breakaway province that Beijing is determined to take back. China’s warships patrol the Taiwan Straits, its Read More …
Brian M Downing Thousands of miles east of Moscow, just northwest of China’s Xinjiang province, Putin faces another problem. Kyrgyzstan, a former SSR, is in turmoil after an obviously rigged election and angry, determined crowds have taken to the streets of Bishkek. As with many SSRs, power is in the Read More …
Brian M Downing The US went into Afghanistan in 2001 with the ambitious goals of democratizing the country and modernizing the economy. Neither goal has even been approximated, the enterprise is in a shambles, and Afghanistan faces an unpromising future. Development programs have done more for Swiss banks than Afghan Read More …