Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Diplomacy has known the Message to Garcia, the Willy-Nicky correspondence, the Zimmerman telegram, and the Zinoviev letter. Now we have President Trump’s tweet claiming Pakistan has been duplicitous in the Afghan war: “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over Read More …
Brian M Downing (Part I) Common ground Political and economic forces will push the Gulf states closer to Russia and China. The Gulf states and Russia want to keep oil prices as high as possible, and indeed they have already collaborated on production limits that have helped raise world prices Read More …
Brian M Downing The United States has naval and air force bases across the Gulf – in Kuwait, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and to an uncertain extent, Saudi Arabia. Iran was once a staunch US ally but after the Shah’s downfall and failure at rapprochement, it’s now firmly aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing The US recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel is bringing angry protest in many parts of the world. Most of it is easing, giving way to realization that the Israeli prime minister and his Likud predecessors have outmaneuvered the Palestinians. There will be no Palestinian state Read More …
Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …
The new game China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan are gaining from American powerlessness in the Middle East, East Asia, and Afghanistan. The superpower’s limitations and the entente’s influence are being made clear around the world. The entente is positioned to gain even more as the Afghan quagmire drags on. The Read More …
Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …
Brian M Downing The signs have been there for over a year. President-elect Trump promised to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. President Trump backtracked but recently announced recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and also the intention to move the US embassy there. Benefits Read More …
Brian M Downing Mohammad bin Salman is solidifying his position as future king of Saudi Arabia. The aged king has ceded authority to him and may step down in coming months. At home, Mohammad is directing a sweeping industrialization program and a modest reform effort. In world affairs, he’s determined Read More …
Brian M Downing The wars in Syria are less intense than in previous years. Battered ISIL forces are losing position after position and rebel forces are on the defensive in most areas. Foreign backers of all sides want the war to wind down. Syria has fragmented and is unlikely to Read More …