Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The view here has been that longstanding flaws and high casualties have rendered the Russian army incapable of meaningful offensive operations. Undaunted, Moscow has rallied the nation with WW2 analogies, drafted hundreds of thousands of men, and positioned them for attack. A winter offensive is underway, seeking Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war has gone badly for Russia. This isn’t widely admitted in Moscow, especially in the upper echelons. Russia’s response hasn’t been to reform its inept army, as did Prussia amid the Napoleonic wars and Japan against western imperialism. Putin et al aren’t looking to the Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars end in different ways, though some go on and on. After World War Two both Germany and Japan were completely defeated by victorious armies. Their armies were disbanded, leaders put on trial, and political systems fundamentally changed. That will not happen in the Russian war on Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive failed in a major encirclement operation from Izyum in the north and Donetsk in the south. Moscow fell back on a less ambitious campaign of slowly moving west from the center of the Donbas. This, it is hoped, will solidify control of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Ukraine war will end in humiliating defeat. The severity and day are uncertain but the cause isn’t. Putin’s army, from top to bottom, has performed abysmally – worse than imaginable for a country claiming major power status. The Russian leadership, or key parts of it, will Read More …
Brian M Downing State collapse Many longstanding democracies, including the US, Britain, France, and Israel face worrisome polarization and gridlock. A young, frail democracy is in far worse shape. The government has been a state of disarray for several months. Recent events are making coalition-building all the more difficult. Angry Read More …
Brian M Downing Since its remarkable offensive of 2014, ISIL has been steadily worn down by Kurdish and Arab forces in Syria and by special forces and militias in Iraq. Both campaigns relied heavily on American support. ISIL retains positions in eastern Syria and western Iraq and was able to Read More …
Brian M Downing Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …
Brian M Downing The US is walking away from the JCPOA and sectarian conflict is poised to spread, intensify, and probably go on for years. The US and Israel are foursquare on the Sunni side. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at odds since Khomeini came to power in 1979 Read More …
Brian M Downing Critical events related to Middle Eastern conflicts took place last week. Iran apparently fired missiles into the Golan Heights and Israel struck back on numerous Iranian positions in Syria. The US announced it’s leaving the JCPOA and new sanctions on the Islamic Republic are pending. Iran responded Read More …