Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Ukrainian offensive has been on for close to three month. Gains around Bakhmut are incremental. Those in the land bridge faced layers of minefields but are now making significant advances toward the coast. In recent days Ukraine has begun an air campaign on Russian territory. Hundreds Read More …
Brian M Downing After Prigozhin’s putsch last June, the over-under on his days wasn’t high. Wagering ended yesterday with an air disaster northwest of Moscow, probably a large bomb. As noted here right after the putsch, Stalin eventually got to Trotsky and Prigozhin wouldn’t last as long. But there are Read More …
Brian M Downing Ukraine’s offensive is proceeding more slowly than expected. Two months on, and there’s no breakthrough as around Kharkiv and Kherson last year. The slow going doesn’t stem from an improved Russian army. Training, logistics, and leadership remain inadequate by major power standards. It’s based on layers of Read More …
Brian M Downing It’s thought that Prigozhin’s rebellion damaged Putin and change may be coming in Moscow. Prigozhin certainly made Putin look foolhardy for supporting him so long, despite his sharp criticisms of the war and its generals. But Putin will only face serious trouble if one or more pillars Read More …
Brian M Downing Unsuccessful military revolts in Russia usually bring fierce retribution. Peter the Great tortured and killed hundreds of Streltsy after their 1698 uprising. Nicholas I did the same to the Decembrists after the Napoleonic wars. Stalin insisted Russian turncoats be repatriated and they were executed upon disembarkation from Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. The mercenary leader has been vocal in criticizing the regular army for its lack of aggressiveness and inadequate logistical support to his troops. After Russian strikes came Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin has successfully mobilized nationalist passions from the Great Patriotic War and deployed them into a failing war. It’s his only notable success. The ideological monolith, built on Stalingrad and Berlin and used for decades to awe the public, revitalized a hapless army and buoyed national support. The Read More …
Brian M Downing China will one day have the strongest economy in the world. But without a powerful, aligned Russia, it can only be a regional military power. No Russian ally, no Chinese preeminence. Everyone’s watching Putin’s offensive which he believes will turn the tide. China is watching more keenly Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia, though enemies for centuries, have aligned to weaken the West and create a new world order dominated from Beijing and Moscow. Putin discussed the Ukraine war with his partner not long before he crossed the border a year ago. Xi is the senior partner, Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has been that longstanding flaws and high casualties have rendered the Russian army incapable of meaningful offensive operations. Undaunted, Moscow has rallied the nation with WW2 analogies, drafted hundreds of thousands of men, and positioned them for attack. A winter offensive is underway, seeking Read More …