Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Islamic Republic is on the move and taking advantage of Israeli-American missteps. The view here has long been that the US would benefit from better ties with Iran. Sunni-Shia enmity would ease and China’s rise in the Gulf would be put off. Israel would benefit too Read More …
Brian M Downing The Israeli government is being criticized for ignoring Egyptian warnings of a major Hamas strike. There may be a larger intelligence failure – one stretching back years and posing great danger for Israeli security and American standing. The present war isn’t just against Iran, Hamas, and aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia are trying to replace the US as the dominant world power. They aided the Taliban and gave the US an embarrassing defeat. They’re cooperating in Ukraine to the same end. The Gaza war presents extraordinary opportunities for the agenda. China and Russia will use Read More …
Brian M Downing Decades of Israeli diplomacy, conducted by centrist and Likud governments with help from both US parties, laid the foundations of a stable Middle Eastern order. Egypt and Jordan inked agreements with Israel. Saudi Arabia and the Emirates shared Israel’s concern with Iran and moved closer. Embassies opened, Read More …
Brian M Downing Hamas wasn’t thought capable of disciplined large-scale ground attacks. Israeli citizens and soldiers have taken serious casualties. Atrocities like those ISIL visited on Iraqis and Syrians took place. Israelis see them as the most recent horrors going back to Ma’alot, Lod, Munich, Russian pogroms, and of course Read More …
Brian M Downing Hamas has launched large-scale, well-organized attacks on Israel. They started on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. There are similarities. Both entailed serious Israeli intelligence failures, high casualties, and international ramifications. The Soviet Union urged Egypt and Syria to avenge their losses in the Six-Day Read More …
We don’t take an oath to a king, or a queen, or to a tyrant or dictator, and we don’t take an oath to a wannabe dictator. We don’t take an oath to an individual. We take an oath to the Constitution, and we take an oath to the idea Read More …
Brian M Downing Most observers think Putin cannot benefit from a long war. His economy is burdened by sanctions, the army has taken egregious casualties, and significant offensive operations are out of reach. However, Putin looks to Stalin not RAND and he may see promise where others do not. He’s convinced Read More …
Brian M Downing Ramzan Kadyrov, Putin vassal and Chechen dictator, is thought to be gravely ill. Several generals and oligarchs have died mysteriously since the war began, almost certainly at Putin’s orders. Kadirov has remained loyal to his Muscovite overlord so his decline may have physical causes rather than political Read More …
Brian M Downing Redrawing maps invites suspicion. Sometimes it invites conflict. China has long been claiming land and waters regarded parts of India, the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam – historic enemies. And of course there’s Taiwan. Now, however, Chinese maps claim land heretofore recognized as part of Russia – an Read More …