Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The long expected battle for Raqqa, the ISIL capital in north-central Syria, is underway. The Syrian Democratic Forces, a coalition of several militias, has begun encircling Raqqa. Soon the SDF will take surrounding villages, then prepare to assault the city itself. The battle will be long and Read More …
Brian M Downing The Trump administration talks of a new era of cooperation with Russia. The historical rivals, it believes, can work together in fighting ISIL and developing oil and gas fields, especially in the forbidding trans-Ural and Arctic regions. The partnership may be facilitated by the affinities between two Read More …
Brian M Downing Iraqi forces began the effort to retake Mosul from ISIL some ten weeks ago. Though ISIL troops are greatly outnumbered, and have no defense from airstrikes, they have put up a formidable defense of their prized Iraqi holding. ISIL fighters continue to demonstrate that they are the Read More …
Brian M Downing The war in Afghanistan has dragged on for fifteen years now. The conflict has been complicated by the rise of ISIL in the region. Its Afghan franchise, ISIL-Khorasan Province, has established itself in eastern Afghanistan, where it has coalesced with and recruited from other jihadi groups, including Read More …
Brian M Downing This week’s assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey has highlighted the international complexities and domestic consequences of the Syrian civil war. The assassin, a young policeman, denounced Russia’s role in the battle of Aleppo and added praise for jihad, presumably against Russia and its regional partners. Read More …
Brian M Downing Once Aleppo is completely taken and reasonably secure, Assad and Putin will turn their attention to the last rebel city in the west, Idlib. Their tactics of intensive airstrikes followed by ground assaults are effective, if inhumane. The rebels have no protection from Russian aircraft. Their foreign Read More …
Oil and geopolitics in the Trump administration Brian M Downing President-elect Trump spoke confidently of better relations with Russia and blamed his adversary, former Secretary of State Clinton, for tensions. His National Security Advisor, retired three-star Michael Flynn, envisions a US partnership against Islamist militants. The choice for Secretary of Read More …
Negotiation and escalation in the Syrian civil war after Aleppo Brian M Downing The war in Syria is entering its sixth year. Various rebel groups, backed by Sunni powers, had the upper hand until Hisbollah, Iran, and Russia intervened on the government side. Over the last year government forces developed a tactic Read More …
Is conflict with Iran coming, again? Brian M Downing Throughout the campaign Donald Trump criticized his chief adversary for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal of 2015. The president-elect has backtracked on several matters, including prosecuting Hillary Clinton and building a physical wall along the Mexican border. Trump has not stepped Read More …
The Trump administration and the future of American-Russian relations Brian M Downing President-elect Trump has all but promised better relations with Russia. Throughout the acrimonious election campaign he criticized Hillary Clinton for damaging the ties between the two powers. He has even expressed optimism of working with President Putin on a Read More …