The new prince confronts Iran (with other people’s armies)

Brian M Downing  Mohammad bin Salman is solidifying his position as future king of Saudi Arabia. The aged king has ceded authority to him and may step down in coming months. At home, Mohammad is directing a sweeping industrialization program and a modest reform effort. In world affairs, he’s determined Read More …

Russia and the US vie in fragmented Syria 

Brian M Downing  The wars in Syria are less intense than in previous years. Battered ISIL forces are losing position after position and rebel forces are on the defensive in most areas. Foreign backers of all sides want the war to wind down. Syria has fragmented and is unlikely to Read More …

The price of wading back into Iraq 

Brian M Downing  When Barack Obama became president in 2009 he inherited the Bush administration’s wars. The new president had good reason to think he’d be entirely rid of the one in Iraq, After all, the Baghdad government had ordered all US out even before he took office. Obama could Read More …

Counter-terrorism and escalation in Africa

Brian M Downing  In early October, four GIs were killed in action while serving in Niger, a landlocked desert country in West Africa. Most Americans were surprised. They were unaware of a US presence in that country and would be hard pressed to find it on a map. The same Read More …

Sources of instability in the Middle East 

Brian M Downing  The Middle East has been unstable for most of the past hundred years, but it’s more so today. Some reasons are long-term, others more recent. Long-term reasons include hostilities between the Shia and Sunni sects, artificial boundaries drawn by Britain and France after the Great War, the Read More …

Putin flexes his muscles in Cold War Two

Brian M Downing  Russia has begun a long anticipated military exercise with the code name “Zapad”, which means “West”. The size of the exercise is substantial, though estimates vary. Moscow officials say that about 14,000 Russian and Belarusian troops will be involved. Western counterparts, however, estimate that the two states Read More …

Obstacles to Saudi-Iranian detente  

Brian M Downing  Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran began to deteriorate with the Khomeini revolution (1979) and worsened in recent years as Tehran’s nuclear program advanced. A proxy war has been underway in Yemen for several years and two more loom in Syria and Iraq. Armies trained more diligently, Read More …

The United States confronts Pakistan, at last

Brian M Downing  Last week President Trump outlined his Afghanistan policy. There was little new in it. More GIs, more money. That’s been going on since the Obama administration. What was new in the speech was the blunt criticism of Pakistan – a supposed ally but a duplicitous one that Read More …

Jihadism in Afghanistan and Central Asia

Brian M Downing  The Afghan conflict has burdened the United States since 2001, at least. Troops and money poured in though with little success in building stability. President Trump was inclined to pull out of what seemed a failed business venture but key advisors, mostly generals, dissuaded him. The US Read More …

President Trump’s war in Afghanistan 

Brian M Downing The US intervention in Afghanistan in 2001 expelled the Taliban in short order. Since then, efforts to modernize government and economy have failed and, predictably, a Taliban insurgency grew rapidly. The war stretched through the George W Bush years and those of Barack Obama. It’s now President Read More …