Brian M Downing
A new Arab Spring may be coming. It’s not as widespread as the one eight years ago. Only Algeria and the Sudan are presently experiencing serious protests. Nonetheless, Saudi Arabia is determined to prevent democracy from taking hold in the Middle East. It was instrumental in weakening the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt and backing a military junta.
The Saudis will oppose representative government in the Sudan. They will get help from another opponent of democracy which has a record of crushing opponents – Russia.
Internal politics
The Sudan has been run by a military-centered oligarchy for many decades. After weeks of persistent demonstrations, the generals have deposed long-time president Omar al-Bashir, placed him under arrest, and announced plans for reform. The demonstrators are not buying it. Bashir’s ouster and even imprisonment will not change the government. The regime does not want to cede power.
The viability of a representative government is of course unclear. The regime has allowed political parties to form and operate in legislative assembles, though of course ones without real power. The largest is a creation of the junta and naturally it will seek to show popular support for the oligarchy.
There are many other parties. Their ability to form a functioning coalition is possible but unlikely. At least one party is attuned to Salafism – the export version of Saudi Wahhabism.
Foreign politics
The Saudis will do everything they can to uphold the regime and draw it closer into their sphere. The Sudan once tried to be independent of Saudi Arabia, especially by keeping good ties with Iran. However, Khartoum has moved closer to Riyadh in recent years. South Sudan’s independence has reduced the north’s oil revenue to pipeline transfer fees. The Sudan cut ties to Iran and sent troops in support of the Saudi campaign against the Shias of the north.
Saudi Arabia and its GCC allies will provide subsidies to the regime. Alternately, if a representative government is able to form, the Saudis et al will use economic weapons to weaken it, just as they did in Egypt in 2012-13.
Beyond its anti-democratic agenda, Saudi Arabia will seek to bring the Sudan into its co-prosperity sphere. It will deliver subsidies, make it part of its sweeping industrialization program, and further integrate it into the Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition, which despite its name, is focused on opposing Shia/Iranian influence.
Russia
Saudi Arabia and Russia/the USSR are longstanding enemies. During Cold War One, Moscow backed secular socialists in the Arab world, the Saudis backed traditionalist monarchies. Riyadh later backed the Afghan mujahideen in Afghanistan.
More recently, Riyadh wanted the Shias out of power in Syria and Sunnis in. Russia helped keep the former sect in power and it did so with Iranian help. Dual crimes in Riyadh’s eyes.
The Saudis, however, were impressed by Russia’s methods in Syria. It bombed civilians intentionally, repeatedly, and pitilessly. Riyadh knows such methods could come in handy one day, perhaps inside the kingdom itself should turmoil break out there. It also knows the US, regardless of its president, is unlikely to match Putin’s ruthlessness.
Russia has been pursuing ties with authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and elsewhere. Venezuela is a recent case in point. Russian troops and private contractors provide personal security for key figures and intimidate the opposition. They are also involved in training and security missions in the Central African Republic and the Sudan. They will help keep authoritarian rulers in power, gain access to African resources, and help integrate the region into the Saudi co-prosperity sphere.
©2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.