Brian M Downing
Russia announced Friday that it’s scaling back operations in the north and concentrating on the east, portions of which it’s occupied since 2014. The announcement is as close as can be expected to admitting the effort to conquer Ukraine has failed.
The Ukrainians have inflicted egregious casualties on invading forces, most of which are now exhausted and demoralized. Many are no longer effectual. Troops northwest of Kiev may be encircled soon and a hasty withdrawal of uncertain orderliness looms. The Russians are on the back foot east of Kiev as well and the coastal towns of Kherson and Mariupol continue determined resistance.
Concentrating on the east
Moscow’s announcement does not mean the war will be limited to consolidating in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia is determined to establish a land bridge along the Black Sea coast connecting Rostov in Russia to the Crimea. That means taking Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Kherson, and Mykolaiv – tough going in hostile urban environments.
A land, sea, and air assault on Odessa appeared imminent last week but determined fighting to the east put another battle on the shelf. Given the Russian military’s lack of coordination so far, the complicated operation isn’t likely to have gone well.
Meanwhile, Russia’s destruction and attempted starvation of Ukrainian cities continues. The aim of course is to use relentless bombardments to break the will of the Ukrainian people and government. Both, however, are defiant and increasingly confident.
Ukraine’s response
Kiev might shift troops and resources to blocking the land bridge. Too much could leave the Kiev region vulnerable to replenished Russian forces. However, the Russians in the north are incapable of significant offensive operations and supplies remain unreliable. Continued attrition of Russians around Kiev with artillery and missiles should be relentless. Keep them in defensive positions or compel them to head north.
Preventing a land bridge is vital. The more territory Russia holds, the stronger its position in any negotiations that come. Further, a land bridge would increase the danger of a second war by a resurgent, vengeful Russia.
Ukraine can cripple Russian forces along the coast in two ways. First, anti-ship missiles can devastate the Black Sea fleet, hampering troop movements and resupply and further undermining the credibility of the brass. NATO should greatly increase supplies of ship-killers.
Second, urban warfare favors Ukraine. Defenders are numerous and spirited. They have local support, know every street, and have rubble for makeshift defenses. Weeks of urban combat will render thousands more Russian troops ineffectual. At some point, the generals may be concerned with their ability to defend the Crimea or suppress unrest there.
Russia is breaking.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing uis a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.