Vladimir Putin is determined to act boldly in the world. This will signal the world, especially the US and NATO, that Russia is again a major actor in the world. Further, it strengthens his domestic support and his grasp on the power that great Russian tsars and general secretaries once had.
Last fall Putin deployed some fifty fighter aircraft and a dozen attack helicopters to Syria. Their especially intensive use in recent weeks has led to some advances around Aleppo. Offers to provide air support to Iraq for their part in the ISIL War have thus far not led anywhere.
More recently Putin has moved closer to Syrian Kurds – a move that further complicates an already exasperating war. It poses serious problems for Turkey and the US, with little investment or risk for Russia.
Turkey
Putin has invited Syrian Kurds to open an office in Moscow. Scheduled for this week, the opening will be attended by foreign dignitaries, mostly from countries aligned with Russia, which will underscore the legitimacy of the Kurdish cause and the significance of Putin’s gesture.
Turkey is annoyed if not angered by this. The two countries have warred regularly since the days of Ivan the Terrible. In recent months, they’ve been sparring along the long Syrian-Turkish border. Russia has intruded into Turkish airspace at least twice, and a Turkish missile brought down a Russian SU-24 last November. Russia’s overture to Syrian Kurds is at least partly in response to the shootdown.
Syrian Kurds are concentrated along the Syrian-Turkish border and are sympathetic to the Kurds of the PKK in southeastern Turkey (paradoxically, a Marxist-Leninist organization) who have fought for autonomy or independence for many decades. Ankara must now worry about Russian support, diplomatic and financial and military, for the Kurds on both sides of the border – in the insurgency and the quest for autonomy or independence.
The Syrian civil war
Closer ties between Syrian Kurds and Russia will alter the calculus in the civil war. Syrian Kurds may be amenable to Russian entreaties to announce acceptance of the Damascus government in exchange for recognition of a Kurdish autonomous region.
The Kurds will then concentrate on fighting Arab rebel groups, or at least those with ambitions that conflict with those of the Kurds. This will strengthen Damascus if only marginally. The Kurds, now backed by Moscow, will also fight ISIL, underscoring Russia’s stated though dubious claims of high-minded goals in the region.
The US
Putin’s opening to the Kurds presents problems for the US’s already difficult position. This undoubtedly played no small part role in Putin’s thinking. Washington will feel the need to increase aid to Syrian Kurds who play a significant part in its strategic plans in the ISIL War. Syrian Kurds, with relentless American air support, inflicted a stunning defeat on ISIL at Kobane last year, and are critical to plans to take the ISIL capital of Reqaa.
More US aid to Syrian Kurds means more conflict with Turkey, which is a NATO partner and linchpin in the ISIL War. Again, Putin surely knew this.
Kurdistan (northern Iraq) may also benefit from more aid as Washington worries of closer Kurdish-Russian ties and the distant possibility of Russia and Iran using their influence to ease the US out of Kurdistan and Iraq.
Putin’s Kurdish policy shows formidable strategic vision. He will, with little investment or risk, strike a blow against Turkey, further vex the US, strain relations between at least two NATO powers, and expand Russian influence with Kurdish groups in Turkey, Syria, and Kurdistan. As noted here before, Americans play football, Russians play chess.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. He served in the army for three years, including one tour in Vietnam.