Brian M Downing
Russia’s much anticipated Donbas offensive is in its second week. Despite reinforcements from the north, furious artillery attacks all along the salient, and confident declarations in Moscow, success is hard to find. Attacks have gained little ground anywhere along the large salient. Most have been beaten back rather easily.
Ukraine’s resolve hasn’t wavered, its troops continue to wear down the Russians, and everyday it’s closer to liberating Kherson. The Donbas offensive has failed. Russia has lost the initiative, and maybe more.
Defeat gravely damages rulers. The Argentine junta fell after losing the Falklands War. Failed wars have lurched France from constitution to constitution, from republic to empire and back. Three centuries-old autocracies collapsed at the end of the First World War, one of them in Moscow.
The Ukraine war may not topple Putin but it will weaken him. His state, popular base, and army won’t be the same. The army is crucial. It’s the most powerful pillar of any autocracy and the one most able to change it or end it. Upper echelons will be plagued by blaming one another and planning for reform and change. But combat units may crumble before any of that.
Morale in the rank and file cannot be good. Their units are depleted in numbers, enervated in spirit, and mistrustful of officers. Lieutenants and captains promised glory and victory but delivered incompetence and arrogance. Losses in personnel and armor, trucks and aircraft, are heavy. Wreckage is everywhere. Deaths are hidden, though word gets around.
Russian soldiers are no longer on the move. They’ve had to dig in, wait for orders, and keep an eye overhead. Supplies of food and ammunition are unreliable. Positions are easily spotted in the relatively open terrain and hit by drones and antitank teams. Defenses against various missiles are inadequate and often absent.
Nothing new is reaching Russian soldiers but Ukrainian units are getting more and increasingly lethal weaponry every week. That will be clear soon. Loitering drones will be hovering menacingly over Russian positions. New Western artillery will pound them – with devastating effect, especially on green troops.
Attacks will be relentless, opportunity to strike back negligible, and casualties high. Anger and reevaluation will spread. Orders will be carried through half-heartedly, if at all. Few officers ever felt the need to earn their soldiers’ respect or establish any camaraderie with them. They’ll have to give orders warily now.
Next: the senior officers
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.