Brian M Downing
China’s march to global preeminence has become bolder in recent weeks. Its “militia fleets” are anchored in disputed areas of the South China Sea. North Korea’s missile tests and Myanmar’s crackdown almost certainly have been approved in Beijing. The recent meeting with American emissaries in Alaska was remarkably antagonistic for the courtly world of diplomacy.
The march will entail many diplomatic moves. The Yemen war is presenting China an opportunity to outmaneuver the US, enhance its global prestige, and strengthen its position in the Persian Gulf. American foreign policy, based as it is on political and economic pressures rather than strategic calculations, is highly resistant to new thinking. A door is opening wide for the People’s Republic.
The American position
Yemen is of limited strategic value to the US. Nonetheless, the Obama administration waded in, providing Saudi Arabia and its allies with weapons and intelligence. Obama was pressed hard to back the southern Sunnis against the northern Shias. Saudi Arabia, which purchases immense amounts of military equipment, and Israel, whose influence with religious backers and Congress is well known, play Washington well.
The war has dragged on, civilian casualties rise, and famine and plague spread. President Biden has called for a ceasefire and talks, but without notable results. His meek response to the Khashoggi report, which blamed the Saudi crown prince, does not inspire confidence he will press Riyadh on Yemen or anything. A change in US policy is all the more unlikely as the Houthis continue to send missiles and drones inside the kingdom.
So, the US is locked into the Yemen policy of the previous two administrations. It’s unable to act in its security interests or in a manner consistent with its human rights principles. Great powers have seldom found themselves so limited. Britain and the Soviet Union, Rome and Athens acted with great independence.
China’s opportunity
Inside the politburo, the march to restored greatness takes priority over everything else. President Xi acts in a coherent and determined manner to expand Chiana’s power. Pressure groups and foreign potentates must play their part in the march or face marginalization or repression.
China is positioned to step into the Yemen situation but the going will not be easy. Mohammad bin Salman has been on a losing streak regarding Syria and Iran and he will be ill disposed to a Shia state with a small but superior army on his southern border, adjacent to a Shia region of the kingdom. However, Xi can exert considerable pressures.
Beijing has replaced the US as the largest importer of Gulf oil. It purchases huge amounts of oil from both Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two powers at odds in Yemen, and invests considerable amounts of capital in both countries. Investment at present is much higher in Iran than in Saudi Arabia.
MBS sees China as a rising power in the world and the US as a declining one. He must be concerned that China might move closer to Iran than to his kingdom, opening the unsettling possibility that Tehran will be on top in coming years.
Iran will of course have the same concern that China will side with the enemy. And both sides of the sectarian divide will feel the need to stay on Beijing’s good side.
Yemen will be an economic burden for the foreseeable future. Its oil resources were never vast and they’ve been in decline for many years. Population growth is causing water shortages. China could support Yemen without favoring north or south, Shia or Sunni.
China can be useful in Saudi Arabia’s modernization program. The prince wants industry to be controlled by the state, as in China. Beijing can provide money, capital goods, managerial expertise, and integration into a dynamic economic order. It can also be an important source of arms one day.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.