Brian M Downing
Iranian reformers over the years have repeatedly mounted courageous demonstrations against the mullahs and generals who’ve been in charge since 1979. Determined young people, mainly urban-dwellers, took to the streets after the fraudulent 2009 election, after price hikes, and other tines as well. They’ve been shot down by the hundreds if not more.
The mullahs and generals have a tight grip. They maintain solid support from urban working classes and pious villagers, and have formidable repressive capacities at their disposal. What can be done? Some, if only a few hundred or thousand, will resort to violence. If their violence is visited on civilians, that would be terrorism.
Reform and repression
Hope for democracy in the Middle East made itself plain with the Arab Spring of 2011. Autocratic governments shuddered. A few fell, most held on. Iranians have pressed for democracy since the Constitutional movement of the early 20th century when they demanded reforms and an end to British and Russian meddling. The country was later occupied by those same imperial powers during both world wars.
A democratic government was overthrown by Britain and the US in 1953 and replaced by the Pahlavi dynasty. The Khomeini Revolution (1979) augured more enlightened rule, at least to many, but an austere theocracy quickly ensued. So did waves of executions and repression.
Emerging more or less victorious from the costly war with Iraq (1980-88), the rulers garnered more legitimacy than they would have in peace. (The same can be said of Soviet rule after the Great Patriotic War and Vietnamese and Chinese leaders after their wars.)
Today, a theocratic-military state enjoys considerable but dwindling power prestige from the Iraq war. It’s able to present itself as the proper form of government – all the more so as the country continues to be menaced by Sunni states and their more powerful allies. Repressive capacity is exceptionally high: large Basij militias, increasingly sophisticated surveillance, and alignment with Russia and China who share their expertise in repression.
Despair and violence
Prospects for democracy are bleak. Outlooks are more hopeless than ever. Many young urban-dwellers will seek to exit the country and find new lives in the West. Thousands have already headed into Turkey, hoping to cross into the EU. Others will remain in their homeland, concentrating on personal lives and hoping for a better day – perhaps when the aging Supreme Leader dies.
Still others, however, will point to the thousands of their peers who were beaten, imprisoned, and shot down, and to the shrinking numbers of politically-engaged colleagues. They will plot to strike back against the regime.
Some will gravitate toward apocalyptic visions that are circulating in the region. Though such ideas seem much stronger in Sunni countries, they are present in Shiism. Reorientation from pious hope for the future to violent action today can come easily. Young Iranians will see themselves as participants in an historic struggle to bring the new dawn of vengeance, power, and justice.
Others will not take on a millenarian creed, but rather a more secular one – as found increasingly in many parts of the world, including the West. They will plan or execute violent attacks on security forces, generals, and perhaps even hardline mullahs. This of course will strengthen repression but it will also make others see the brutal nature of the regime and bring support from inside the country – and without as well.
Part two: historical examples and support for Iranian terror.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.