Brian M Downing
The war has begun. Russian ground, air, and naval forces have attacked the Ukraine along several fronts. The view here since early December was that Putin would restrict his campaign to seizing the east and securing lines of communication to the Crimea, which he invaded and annexed in 2014. Drives into other areas, including the approaches to Kiev, would be diversions or threats intended to force the government to cede the east and break ties to NATO.
A day into the war, that may have been a miscalculation. Russian troops are besieging Kiev’s airport which can be used to airlift thousands of troops and equipment to take the cities. Most or all of the country may fall, perhaps within a week. Putin may want to conquer the entire country. Or he may seize the territory stretching from the Crimea to Moldova and order Kiev to demilitarize and break with the West, thereby making the Ukraine a timid rump state.
But Putin may have made a far more serious miscalculation. Sanctions will not accomplish much. The other boot will fall though.
The Ukrainian military is larger, better trained and equipped, and more determined than the lax troops who handed over the Crimea. They may be able to inflict serious casualties, stall Russian drives, and force the invaders to reevaluate.
Ukrainian troops may, however, have to pull back to mountainous and wooded redoubts from which they can carry on the war, make sorties into Russian-held areas, and rally resistance elsewhere, including discontented Ukrainians and Tatars in the Crimea. Young people in Belarus and Russia may become more active.
Alternately, and more problematically for Moscow, Ukrainians could pull back along borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Rumania. They can continue the fight from there and benefit from medical and logistical help from the West. An emboldened NATO could establish a no-fly zone over free areas and enforce it with air defenses. Volunteers from abroad would be welcome.
Urban areas could see protracted, determined civil disobedience. More importantly, guerrilla warfare could take place in cities, with or without support from resistance forces in redoubts and along borders. The venerable Molotov cocktail could be renamed after foreign minister Lavrov.
Drawn out fighting could wear on Russian forces, especially if less well-motivated garrison troops have to be rotated in over the course of months and years. Disquiet may include higher echelons. Generals may question Putin’s judgment. Some may even question his ability to lead Russia.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.