Brian M Downing
In recent weeks Trump has been upset with Mohammad bin Salman, the reigning prince of Saudi Arabia. The headstrong young ruler boosted oil production to punish Russia but in so doing he endangered the fiscal stability of many countries, including his own. Trump demanded MBS cut production or he would withdraw the defensive shield that’s been in place since FDR parleyed with Abdul Aziz back in 1945. MBS quickly complied.
The president has remained upset. He later ordered the withdrawal of Patriot missiles which have been protecting Saudi oil sites that Iran struck. Reductions in fighter aircraft and naval vessels are thought to be underway.
An encouraging turn of events but how far will it will go. Trump may simply be seeking to frighten MBS and establish the upper hand over a protectorate ceded by previous presidents. However, there are compelling political and strategic reasons to reevaluate the US’s stance toward Saudi Arabia and even greatly reduce our commitments in the Gulf.
Texas oil
MBS’s production boost did considerable damage to the shale oil business centered in Texas, That segment of US oil, was never especially profitable and ever in debt. Rigs counts are falling, bankruptcies rising.
This will add to the state’s already high unemployment figures. Its 38 electoral votes (second only to California) may be up for grabs in November. If Texas goes Blue, Trump will lose and the GOP will be in danger of marginalization.
Many constituents see the Saudis as having sabotaged a vital American asset and made us more dependent on them. The president’s upbraiding of the Saudi prince is bringing up oil prices and burnishing his credentials of toughness and nationalism.
The US imports very little oil from the Middle East these days. Imports are delivered to Saudi-owned refineries in America and sent on to thousands of Saudi-owned (or partly owned) filling stations.
Saudi Arabia and regional security
It may be dawning on the White House that Saudi Arabia is ruled by a ruthless, ham-fisted young prince who seeks to make his country a dominant power. He has used his wealth to build popular bases in several neighboring countries and equip their armies with modern hardware, much to the delight of beholden general staffs and security bureaus.
A more thoughtful approach tp regional security would be to reign in Saudi Arabia. A balancing approach would be more in keeping with longterm US interests. The US should shift from backing Saudi Arabia to building rapport with powers already determined to prevent Saudi dominance. Qatar, Turkey, and Oman fit the description and all four already host US military bases. Put differently, backing Saudi Arabia risks the independence and even the existence of our allies.
Saudi Arabia’s longterm stability may be questioned. As the Chicago pols used to say, astutely if ungrammatically, don’t back no losers. The monarchy faces opposition from many quarters – liberal reformers, the Muslim Brotherhood, hardline fundamentalists, oppressed Shia, and even members of the royal family excluded from succession and sinecures. If push comes to shove, the military might not be reliable and the prince will phone the US.
Strategic priorities
Tensions between the US and China are on the rise. The US has been sending ships and planes into contested areas along the Chinese periphery. The US is also confronting Russia by rotating troops in and out countries form the Baltic to the Black Sea. This comes at a time when US troops are also involved in counterterrorism operations from the Sahel to Kenya.
The US has to establish priorities. Defending affluent oil exporters with immense defense budgets and inept armies cannot rank high, at least to security analysts. Many think tanks and media nodes argue for confronting Iran but most generals are unconvinced it’s necessary or in our interest.
The US isn’t going to break with Saudi Arabia. The president faces too many pressures, foreign and domestic and even familial, to continue the alliance if at a lower level of trust and fealty. Nonetheless, he must impress upon MBS that being overly obliging toward his shaky monarchy built on oil and nothing else, is inconsistent with the idea of American greatness.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.