Brian M Downing
The United States and Iran have been at daggers drawn since the Trump administration accused Iran of violating the JCPOA and reimposed more and more sanctions. The policy is not bringing anything positive for the US or the region.
Today Iran is suffering high numbers of Covid-19 illnesses and deaths. US sanctions make it difficult for doctors to get medications. World opinion is not favoring the US.
A new policy, whether initiated by the erratic president of today or a successor tomorrow, could bring benefits to US security interests and the region. It could begin by allowing a free flow of medical supplies into Iran. The Iranian leadership has rejected it so far but the death rate is climbing and both countries can benefit.
Iraq
Iran has responded to US pressure by strengthening its hand with Shia militias in Iraq. The militias have been striking US positions over the months, especially since the targeted-killing of IRGC figure Soleimani. US reprisals have no deterrent effect and Iran can escalate as well as the US can.
The Trump administration claims to want to get out of no-win conflicts. Easing tensions with Iran will help with a more graceful exit from Iraq – and elsewhere too.
Afghanistan
Iran loathes the Taliban. They massacred several of its consulate personnel in northern Afghanistan in 1998 and are as oppressive of Shia people as they come. However, Tehran has over the years seen fit to supply them as a way to counter the US.
Tehran has sound ties with northern people such as the Tajiks and Hazaras. The former’s culture is largely Persian, the latter is Shia. Iran supported them against the Taliban throughout the 90s and even helped the US-led offensive out of the Panjshir Valley redoubt in 2001.
Iran is uniquely position to press the Taliban, Tajiks, and Hazaras into a settlement – and into abiding by it once the US leaves.
US allies
The Trump administration’s Iran policy does not sit well with allies in Europe and East Asia. They do not share the view that Iran violated the JCPOA as the White House claims. (Neither does the CIA for that matter.) Allies see Iran as a trading partner and resent US pressure to go along with sanctions.
The administration does not realize the importance of allies. The lessons of history and realpolitik are not reflected in its statements or policies. However, the zenith of American greatness came with World War Two and the Cold War, both of which were won with the help of stalwart allies.
Saudi Arabia
Better ties between the US and Iran would check Saudi Arabia. Presently, Mohammed bin Salman exploits Washington’s eagerness to retain influence in the Gulf and presses it into conflicts in Yemen and Syria, which have little bearing on US security interests.
MBS is a ruthless, ambitious autocrat who could well be on the throne for 60 years. The region would be better off with him out of power – or at least restrained by US policies.
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Iranians once looked hopefully to the US. They are now bewildered and increasingly angered by our policies which seem aimed at crushing them. If there were a change in regime in Tehran, many young people would remain hostile toward the US. A change in American policy, occasioned by the Covid-19 catastrophe, would be welcome – in Iran and many parts of the world as well.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.