Opposition to Detente II: how much will there be?

Brian M Downing  Relations between the US and Russia have declined badly since Putin’s invasion of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Trump administration is determined to bring rapprochement. The contours of an arrangement seem to be reducing sanctions on Russia in exchange for its cooperation against Iran – a Read More …

Unrest in Jordan and concerns of another Arab Spring

Brian M Downing Jordan has been in the background while much of the Middle East has burned and raged. It experienced no upheaval as in Egypt, Libya, and Syria. ISIL’s presence isn’t strong in Jordan, though it has pockets of support. The Jordanian military is playing a role in fighting Read More …

Is Detente II a good idea for the US?

Brian M Downing  The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 portended favorably for world peace, at least to some. Others saw the source of Russian-Soviet actions based not in communist ideology but rather in a national security ideology and string of ambitious rulers, both of which predate Marx and Read More …

The Russian S-400 system heads for Qatar

Brian M Downing  Arms sales are increasingly important in world affairs – to buyers and sellers alike. The US isn’t in lockstep with the Gulf monarchies against Iran because of oil imports. American imports from the Middle East have dwindled over the last two decades or so. The tilt is Read More …

ISIL and terrorism after the caliphate 

Brian M Downing  Since its remarkable offensive of 2014, ISIL has been steadily worn down by Kurdish and Arab forces in Syria and by special forces and militias in Iraq. Both campaigns relied heavily on American support. ISIL retains positions in eastern Syria and western Iraq and was able to Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part two

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s and took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but picked up Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part one

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …

Jerusalem, Gaza, and stability in the anti-Iran Entente

Brian M Downing  This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian Read More …