Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Sahel is losing ground to Islamist and separatist groups. What options are available to France, the US, and local governments? Foreign combat troops The most obvious answer is to deploy French and American ground troops – not just advisors and trainers, battalions of combat troops. Drone Read More …
Brian M Downing While attention has focused on civil war and jihadism in the Middle East, Islamist militants have been striking in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The attacks are becoming bolder and more lethal. Government forces are not up to the task of taking them on. Indeed, outposts Read More …
Brian M Downing Mentioning oil in world politics will immediately bring up the oil shock of 1973. The Saudis and other Gulf states showed their opposition to US support for Israel in the Yom Kippur War, when the US sent anti-tank missiles and helped the IDF defeat Arab air defenses. Read More …
Brian M Downing Relations between the US and Iran have been varying degrees of bad since the revolution and embassy seizure of 1979. The JCPOA of 2015 opened the door to better relations. The Obama administration and Rouhani government were amenable but the mullahs and generals, who oversee Rouhani, were Read More …
Brian M Downing Sustained fighting short of all-out war In this scenario the Iraqi state doesn’t collapse, but neither does it expel pro-Iran forces and US military personnel. The US and Saudi Arabia are unable to marginalize Iranian-backed militias and political parties. Iran continues to spar with US and Saudi-backed Read More …
Brian M Downing State collapse Many longstanding democracies, including the US, Britain, France, and Israel face worrisome polarization and gridlock. A young, frail democracy is in far worse shape. The government has been a state of disarray for several months. Recent events are making coalition-building all the more difficult. Angry Read More …
Brian M Downing Unrest is again sweeping Iranian cities. This time it was set off by official deceptions about the Ukrainian airliner disaster. Iran has a long history of large-scale protests stretching back a century. Last November the government raised gasoline prices which led to jarring protests in many cities. Read More …
Brian M Downing US exit? A few weeks ago angry protesters in Iraq called an end to Iranian interference. After Soleimani’s assassination, calls for ousting the US erupted. The sentiment is shared by many MPs and a legally-binding order is in the works. President Trump’s threat of sanctions hardly cooled Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions, sometimes very ominous ones, come and go in the Middle East. Since the killing of General Soleimani and Iran’s subsequent missile strike in Iraq, tensions have eased, at least for now. Iran’s response was fiery missile launches into dark skies and claims of high American casualties. Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the last few months Iraq, like many countries in and out of the Middle East, has been hit hard by violent protests. The Baghdad government is paralyzed. Most of the violence was aimed at Iranian targets at the direction of Shia leader Moqtada al Sadr – Read More …