Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Uncertainties of war Churchill noted that wars never proceed as expected. He would know. The Chinese war party in the politburo and general staff might well think hard about his warning. They are inexperienced with actual war and prone to overconfidence and optimistic scenarios. Perhaps they’ve read Read More …
Brian M Downing Conflicts are raging from the Maghreb to the Caucasus to Central Asia. Concerns are mounting that another will soon erupt in East Asia. China is exerting pressure on Taiwan – a breakaway province that Beijing is determined to take back. China’s warships patrol the Taiwan Straits, its Read More …
Brian M Downing In recent weeks Qatar has hosted talks to bring the American phase of the Afghan conflict to an end. President Trump has said there should be a US troop cut by December. Nonetheless, the Taliban have besieged Lashkar Gah, the capital of the southern province of Helmand. Read More …
Brian M Downing Thousands of miles east of Moscow, just northwest of China’s Xinjiang province, Putin faces another problem. Kyrgyzstan, a former SSR, is in turmoil after an obviously rigged election and angry, determined crowds have taken to the streets of Bishkek. As with many SSRs, power is in the Read More …
Brian M Downing Earlier this year Putin’s strategic position was quite good. The alliance with China was sound, Iran and Venezuela were defying American threats, and Turkey was moving away from NATO. Then came a political crisis in Belarus, a war in the Caucasus, and more recently an upheaval in Read More …
Brian M Downing The US went into Afghanistan in 2001 with the ambitious goals of democratizing the country and modernizing the economy. Neither goal has even been approximated, the enterprise is in a shambles, and Afghanistan faces an unpromising future. Development programs have done more for Swiss banks than Afghan Read More …
Brian M Downing Eastern Syria has been the scene of intermittent skirmishes between American and American-backed forces on one hand and Syrian and Russian troops on the other. In the last month Russian vehicles bumped US counterparts, probably deliberately, injuring several GIs. There’ve been far more serious incidents. Two years Read More …
Brian M Downing Rumors of war with Iran have been circulating for years. Bush the Younger and the neoconservatives branded the Islamic Republic a key part of the Axis of Evil, called for regime change, but got bogged down in Iraq. The Obama administration, too, seemed on the brink of Read More …
Brian M Downing The Emirates and Bahrain have recently recognized Israel and hinted at meaningful ties. Other Sunni monarchies may soon follow. Jerusalem’s effort in the Gulf has been one of the most remarkable diplomatic feats since Nixon established relations with China almost a half century ago. What might rapprochement Read More …
Brian M Downing Twenty years ago, only specialists had heard of al Qaeda. Since then, it has grown in numbers, inspired rivals, aligned with separatists, and spread into Nigeria, the Maghreb, Sinai, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, East Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia. Both AQ and ISIL have havens Read More …