Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing This week, Russia launched an offensive in the Donbas. It surprised no one. The Kremlin announced that it was shifting to the east and even claimed, if unconvincingly, that control of the region was the principal war aim. Why has the drive come so shortly after the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian army is preparing an offensive in the east, perhaps along the Black Sea coast as well. It comes on the heels of disastrous, costly failures to take Kiev and Kharkiv. The battered troops withdrew unceremoniously and are heading to the east. The view here is Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war, now in its eighth week, continues to go badly for him. The army is suffering heavy casualties and confusion plagues the chain of command. Sanctions will bring depression by fall and the army may be paralyzed by morale, discipline, and supply problems before that. Many Read More …
Brian M Downing Since the outset, Russia’s war has shown no regard for civilian lives. This isn’t simply Ukrainian propaganda. Russian artillery, airstrikes, and missiles target apartment complexes, theaters, and hospitals, as they did in Chechnya and Syria. Ukrainian troops are finding scenes of grisly executions and massacres as they Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia opened three fronts in Ukraine. Drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv have failed and the troops are retreating and will soon redeploy to the remaining front in the east. The Russians been hit hard and need a few weeks to work in replacements and recover. Putin may Read More …
Brian M Downing Five weeks on, the war has changed remarkably, welcomingly, and probably irreversibly. The Russians are withdrawing from areas northwest of Kyiv, abandoning pockets of soldiers and tons of equipment. Troops around Kharkiv may soon hie north too. Ukrainian troops will soon near the border with Belarus. This Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s blitzkrieg has failed. Large-scale armored thrusts couldn’t take Kiev or Kharkiv and have met with only limited success along the Black Sea. He doesn’t have a Guderian or Rommel to boldly implement his orders, only a Keitel and Jodl to dutifully click their heels. The situation Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia announced Friday that it’s scaling back operations in the north and concentrating on the east, portions of which it’s occupied since 2014. The announcement is as close as can be expected to admitting the effort to conquer Ukraine has failed. The Ukrainians have inflicted egregious casualties Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s blitzkrieg has failed. Ukrainian troops fighting with superior determination and weapons have blunted it. Putin’s hope to exploit fissures in NATO has fizzled as well. The alliance is stronger than at any time since the ink dried on the treaty. The alliance may even add Finland Read More …
Brian M Downing The view presented here in parts 1-3 is that the Russian army is flawed. Some 25% of its troops are poorly-trained and indifferently-motivated conscripts who do not fit well with dedicated regulars. Promotions from field grade to general staff are often based on political loyalties not professional Read More …