Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Russian army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s running out of hi-tech weapons and Ukraine is getting more and more of them everyday. Putin’s forces are no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere even Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war on Ukraine is in its ninth month. Offensives in the north and east have failed. His army has lost the initiative and cannot regain it in the foreseeable future, probably not for years. Casualties have been staggering, supply systems are unreliable, and poorly trained and Read More …
Brian M Downing Thus far the Iranian uprising has apparently not led to weakened repressive capacity, divisions in the elite, or opposition in parliament (Majles). This doesn’t bode well. However, separatist movements, terrorism, and foreign pressures may cause deeper problems for the mullahs and generals. Intensified separatism Iran is ruled Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the years since the 1979 revolution, Iran has seen several uprisings against the mullahs and generals. They are part of a long history of protests and democratic aspirations led by young urban dwellers that go back over a century. Previous triggers have been electoral fraud, shortages, Read More …
Brian M Downing Ukrainian offensives around Kharkiv and Kherson have retaken swathes of land. They’ve also snared tens of thousands of prisoners – a startling and useful development. Several thousand have been recruited into a NATO-backed formation that will fight Russia, effect further territorial fragmentation, and ultimately depose Vladimir Putin. Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin, facing dire manpower problems in Ukraine, has ordered mobilization of 300,000 reservists. It sounds more formidable than it is. Few reservists have anything more than basic training, which in Russia is cursory and almost meaningless. Industry can’t adequately equip them. The army doesn’t have cadres to Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia were enemies for centuries as the tsars expanded from the Urals to the Pacific and took Chinese territory along the way. Even when both states were overtly communist, there were tensions and even border skirmishes over territory. The bloodiest one, in 1969, led to Read More …
Brian M Downing Attention has long focused on the south where 20,000 Russian troops are isolated west of the Dnipro. A Ukrainian offensive there seemed imminent.That may still come, but a few days ago the Ukrainians drove east from the northern city of Kharkiv. The results have been astonishing. About Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war is in the seventh month. Offensives fail. Casualties mount. Operations go nowhere. Depleted BTGs have to be combined to hold up effectiveness. Russia is facing a manpower problem. It has to find recruits, train and motivate them, and integrate them into units along the sprawling Read More …
Brian M Downing Tides turn in wars. Germans know that well. Russians should. Russia began the Ukraine war with seemingly unstoppable drives from north, south, and east. Ukraine pushed them Russia back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russia began its eastern offensive and pushed into Luhansk. A decisive breakthrough loomed Read More …