Brian M Downing
Relations between the US and Russia have declined badly since Putin’s invasion of the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Trump administration is determined to bring rapprochement. The contours of an arrangement seem to be reducing sanctions on Russia in exchange for its cooperation against Iran – a goal of Israel and Saudi Arabia eagerly adopted by the Trump administration.
Opposition to another detente stems from reflexive hawkishness and mistrust of Moscow, regardless of the prevailing ideology there. However, opposition is also based on Putin’s actions in the world. The battle is on.
The pro-detente camp
Neoconservatives in the administration, think tanks, and popular media have argued passionately that Iran is a dangerous aggressor in the Middle East. They want sanctions and proxy wars to weaken the hold of the mullahs and generals and in time bring regime change. They profess to support transition to reform and democracy but would be pleased to see turmoil and disintegration.
This is a remarkable turnaround. The neoconservatives entered American politics fifty years ago, warning of Moscow’s danger to the world and of America’s declining moral fiber and unwillingness to stand up to evil. Having helped restore America’s moral order and willingness to use force, the neoconservatives have redeployed them into a quest to bring change to the Middle East. Now they want the help of Putin’s Russia.
Russia is Iran’s strongest ally. It sells arms to Tehran, including the S-400 air-defense system, and supports Iran diplomatically, though not as fiercely as in years past. Owing to Israel’s influence with Putin, his support for Iran has flagged. Israeli forces strike Iranian targets in Syria with impunity. Russian air defenses stay offline.
Israeli and the US want greater distance between Moscow and Tehran. Lowered western sanctions on Russia is the inducement.
US businesses stand to benefit from Detente II, though not tremendously. Joint ventures to develop oil tracts in Siberia and the Arctic are one opportunity, but not many US enterprises are eager to do business in a country with a ruler who does not respect property rights.
Detente II will find avid support on partisan talk shows and news programming. The GOP will be able to rally large portions of congress and the party base to the cause of welcoming Russia back into the world community and punishing Iran.
The opposition
Neoconservatives have influence on both sides of the aisle, as support for the 2003 Iraq war makes plain. Voting in the affirmative were Senators Clinton and Kerry and several others in their party. The same pressure will be brought to bear for Detente II and few in congress want to be branded soft on Iran.
Partisan politics will strengthen the opposition. The president, his party, and their agenda are loathed in Democratic circles. Opposition may be further strengthened by the results of the Mueller investigation which is uncovering puzzling business ties between Russian officials and members of the president’s retinue, past and present.
These business relations could form a basis of congressional opposition. However, if Mueller uncovers discussions of detente between Russian officials and candidate Trump’s councilors such as Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner, Democrats will inveigh against business ties and questionable liaisons but most will refrain from opposing Detente II and the Iran policy behind it.
National security bureaus, including the Pentagon, CIA, NSA, and FBI, might pose the strongest opposition. They look warily at secretive meetings and signs of a momentous shift in policy toward Europe and the Middle East. Russia is an adversary and untrustworthy partner in any proposed endeavor.
Opposition may pervade institutional cultures from decades past, but recent events have given ample reason for those cultures to reassert themselves. Moscow has hacked into the servers of American bureaucracies, corporations, individuals, and political parties. It has disseminated false or at least highly tendentious news stories in an effort to sway the American public and corrupt its democratic processes.
Russian aircraft have systematically targeted Syrian civilians, hospitals, and relief organizations. The Russian leadership aided in Syria’s retention of chemical weapons and condoned their repeated use on civilians.
American security institutions see Russia as aligned with China in concerted efforts to weaken American influence in the world and advance their own. This makes the NATO partnership more important than it’s been in decades. Many of those countries have been allies since the First World War. That has great meaning to military personnel, much less to dealmakers.
Copyright 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks to Susan Ganosellis.