Kurdish offensive on Sinjar stalls
The town of Sinjar lies just west of ISIL-occupied Sinjar, and taking Sinjar would cut off Mosul from the rest of ISIL in Syria and Iraq. Kurdish factionalism is still overriding the need for unified action against ISIL. Combined with the weakness and corruption of the Iraqi army, it’s difficult to see a timely ouster of ISIL from western Iraq.
Iraqi Kurds to solidify control over Kirkuk
Saddam Hussein settled Arabs on areas around Kirkuk as a way to strengthen his control over adjacent oil fields. Last year, as the Iraqi army disintegrated before ISIL advances, Kurdish fighters seized the region, needless to say including the oil fields. The region will hold a referendum to join the Kurdish autonomous region, which is nearing full independence. Don’t expect Arab turnout to be high; they will be deterred from showing up to polls.
Large-scale capital flight from Iraq under Maliki
Iraqi banks have been complicit in secreting billions of dollars out of the country over the last nine years. A country so corrupt and irresponsible cannot develop meaningful democratic institutions and cannot build a force capable of defeating ISIL.
Meanwhile, the HQ of 101st Airborne Division will deploy to Iraq and Kuwait. Though only administrative units, they signal a contingency to send regular combat units into the region, again. The move is also a signal to Russia.
Gunman kills US and S African trainers in Jordan
A police captain shot and killed foreign trainers at a training site near Amman. It isn’t yet clear if his motivations are related to Islamism or ISIL. Jordan does have at least two regions that have worrisome Islamist ferment. “The attack coincides with the 10th anniversary of suicide bombings in Amman hotels that cost 60 lives and wounded dozens more.”
Russia sells new air defense system to Iran
The S-300 system has long been promised but never delivered. As Iran and Russia move more closely together in Syria, the sale may come to pass. Foreign policy and arms sales are intertwined. The system will make any Israeli or American airstrike on Iran more difficult, though not prohibitively costly. However, Russia is unlikely to support an Iranian effort to build a nuclear weapon.
Fighting between Taliban factions
The succession trouble continues to plague the Afghan Taliban. A splinter group announced itself in Helmand province and has clashed with mainstream Taliban groups. The Taliban is less united and hence weaker.