Iraqi troops retake parts of Ramadi
After many months of sluggish efforts, the Iraqi army, combined with Shia militias and backed by US airpower, has finally entered Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province which fell to ISIL last spring. ISIL has the best troops but they cannot stand up to airpower combined with superior numbers. The battle isn’t over. Look for ISIL troops to seek to inflict egregious casualties on the Iraqis. Do not look for the Iraqi forces to come say from the battle of Ramadi with great unity and fighting spirit.
Russia strikes Syrian targets from Mediterranean sub
Russia is using the war to showcase its weaponry. It has already fired cruise missiles from ships in the Caspian Sea. This is unlikely to have had much military effect, but it demonstrated the power and range of the Russian navy – and also its alignment with another Caspian power, Iran.
ISIL establishes presence in Gaza
The Sheikh Omar Hadid Brigade (SOHB) is an ISIL affiliate in the Palestinian city of Gaza. It is thought to be gaining more support as there has been no meaningful progress in peace talks in many years. Look for the Palestinians to become more attracted to radical, internationalist movements.
Turkish troops in Kurdistan becoming an international issue
Iraqi PM Abadi continues to protest, to Turkey and the world, the presence of Turkish troops in Kurdistan. They are there in support of the Kurdish government which has come under attack from Shia militias backed by Iran. Abadi will take the matter to the UN. The Kurds have won considerable international support as the most effective enemy of ISIL.