Islamist militant leaders killed by US
The ISIL commander in Libya and an al Shabab leaders in Somalia were killed in separate US strikes. While such moves are welcome, they do not constitute a serious loss to either ISIL or al Shabab. In order to disrupt the command and control of such groups, their leadership has to be killed, captured, or seriously wounded routinely.
Jihadi numbers in Syria and Iraq increase
The Soufan Group states that the influx of foreign jihadis into Syria and Iraq has increased since the West began its air campaign against ISIL. This fits with the view expressed here that western intervention would be seen as another foreign effort to meddle and humiliate the region. However, numbers of jihadis must be treated with skepticism. There’s simply no sound methodology to discern the numbers with any precision.
Influx of fighters from Russia and former parts of the USSR
As noted here, Russia has a growing Islamist problem. Fighters from the Russian Caucasus are coming into AQ and ISIL. They will return home one day. Some almost certainly already are as response to Russia’s intervention in Syria on behalf of a Shia power. Furthermore, fighters are coming from Central Asia – an area Putin considers in hs sphere of influence.
Syrian rebel groups to meet in Riyadh
Various rebel groups, other than al Nusrah and ISIL, are meeting in Riyadh. This is a positive step but agreement among these disparate groups will be difficult. One fissure is between the Saudis who wish to expand their influence and Qatar which wants to advance its own. Qatar is chief backer of the Muslim Brotherhood which backs a large portion of the rebels, probably more than the US and Saudis do.