Gulf tensions grow over cleric execution
The execution of Sheikh Nimr and subsequent attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran continue to cause trouble in the already Gulf region. Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Bahrain, and UAE have broken ties to Iran. Outright war is unlikely. More likely is an intensification of proxy war sin Syria and Yemen. The Sunni powers may also support Sunni independence in Iraq.
ISIL forces drive on oil centers
The chaos following Col Qaddafi’s ouster has enabled ISIL to thrive in Benghazi and elsewhere. Libya always had an Islamist movement. Qaddafi tried to suppress it through ruthless means, including massacre, but to little avail. Libyans were overrepresented in al Qaeda in its early days in the Sudan.
ISIL is now trying to gain control over oil facilities in order to get revenue. Even if successful, large revenue is unlikely. Syrian oil exports have relied on preexisting smuggling networks and is small-scale. It’s difficult to see how anyone can smuggle an oil tanker out of a Libyan oil terminal.