US warns Russia on expected Syrian moves
Russia is expected to boost its presence in Syria in upcoming weeks to demonstrate support for the beleaguered Assad regime. It already has personnel with Syrian troops who are more than advisers – they are firing on rebel forces. Russia is thought to be about to build a compound to house a few hundred or a even a few thousand more military personnel. There’s the possibility that Russian aircraft will provide air support for Syrian troops. Putin will garner more prestige at home.
Riyadh has belatedly reported that ten of its troops were killed in a blast, possibly from a Houthi missile. Note the delay in reporting. Though the impact on the Saudi public is unlikely to be profound, Riyadh will be on guard for dissent and will try to use the deaths to increase support for the war. There is the risk that Saudi Arabia will overreact to this and launch another ground incursion into N Yemen.
Tajikistan launches attacks on Islamist rebels
In response to an attack on security forces in the capital Dushanbe. Tajikistan, located just to the northeast of Afghanistan, is a place to worry about in regard to Islamist unrest. The same can be said of its neighbors, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Assassination of Druze leader leads to unrest
The car-bombing that killed Sheikh Walid Balous is being attributed, rightly or wrongly, to the Syrian government, leading to anti-government sentiment. Not all Druze believe this, but there is growing concern that Assad’s rule is in danger and that the Druze may have to fend for themselves. As noted here, Israel would like to see a separate Druze region as a buffer state – one that enjoys Israel’s protection.