News and commentary 18 Sep 2015

US will talk with Russia on Syria

After Russia solidified its support for the Syrian government, US Sec of State Kerry has announced talks with Russia on the war in Syria. This may take two forms: First, Russia will make a case for a united effort against ISIL and the al Nusrah Front. This is unlikely to go very far because it would put the US in the same camp as Assad. Second, talks may set the stage for a negotiated settlement. This would entail the breakup of the country into several statelets. This will be opposed by Assad and Iran, but it may be the optimal solution.  It still leaves open the matter of who will fight ISIL.

ISIL establishing a foothold in western Egypt

In addition to the Islamist militants in Sinai, ISIL has struck in western Egypt, using smuggling routes from adjacent Libya. Portions of Egypt, Libya, Mali, Algeria, and Nigeria are lost to Islamist militants and will remain so for several years, at least. The same can be said of parts of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

Pakistani gunmen attack Peshawar mosque

The Pakistani Taliban has taken credit for killing at least sixteen people, mostly military personnel, in morning prayers in the northern city of Peshawar. The Pakistani Taliban, or TTP, is different from the Afghan Taliban is more international in outlook. Look for the TTP to give allegiance to al Qaeda or ISIL. The number of deaths is being revised upward.

Saudi king seeks UN action on Temple Mount/al Aqsa tensions

Saudi King Salman is asking the UN to step in to ease tensions on the famed Jerusalem mount. His concern must be seen in light of his expectation of UN criticism of Israel and his need for better a public image for his country after so much destruction and suffering his air force has brought in Yemen. Meanwhile, a low-level Intifada is underway.