TheTaliban’s seizure of Kunduz city two months ago shocked Kabul and Washington alike. A report directed by former Afghan intel chief Amrullah Saleh faults “poor leadership, misuse of resources and bad communication between Afghan security forces.” This calls into question the ability of ethnically and religiously divided countries to build effective armies to cope with determined foes such as the Taliban and ISIL. Needed reforms simply do not happen,
Former MI6 analyst sees long ISIL War
Richard Barrett sees the war as lasting decades as the idea behind ISIL resonates with a small but not insignificant number of a generations of Muslims. This has been my view. It will be a long war and calls for western ground troops reflect a profound ignorance of the region and the conflict.
Insight into Islamist militancy in Europe
Islamist militancy has heretofore been base chiefly on urban, middle class men in the Islamic world. The perpetrators of the Paris attacks were urban, but they were from rather meager backgrounds and were often enough involved in petty crime and hip-hop lifestyles. Look for Islamist militancy to pick up in such poor neighborhoods. Also, look for politically based violence to pick up in non-Islamic neighborhoods. ISIL is, in its way, inspiring.
Growing conflict between Kurdish and Shia militias
In the aftermath of the disintegration of Iraqi army units in northern Iraq, Kurdish and Shia militias have been the most effective fighters. They are, however, at odds. The Kurds want independence from Baghdad, the Shia militias want to maintain as much Shia power as possible. Iran has significant influence with both groups.