Brian M Downing
Myanmar had been making strides toward becoming democracy, until the military stepped in last month. Spirited demonstrations against military rule soon followed. The army followed a pattern established in Russia, Belarus, Thailand and several other continues. Soldiers arrest hundreds each day in the hope detaining much of the leadership and wearing the demonstrators down. Paramount is avoiding large-scale deaths that escalate violence.
Recently, however, the Myanmar army deviated from the pattern. It’s killed about seventy civilians so far and shows no sign of relenting. The contest between authoritarianism and democracy in Myanmar is playing out amid a Sino-American competition for global supremacy. Both sides are relatively quiet but their interest is high.
The march
China will have the largest economy in the world within a decade or so. That’s an impressive accomplishment but in Beijing’s calculus it’s only a number, albeit it a promising one. China wants, and feels it an ordained destiny, to become the world’s most powerful nation. The march is well underway.
It will not attain world supremacy through conquest of vast areas or building military bases around the world. Military intimidation serves only a supportive role. The destiny will be reached mainly by tremendous and strategically-directed economic power.
1) China wants considerable control over commodity prices. Oil is out of the question though it can become highly influential with the Gulf states and Russia. What OPEC is to oil, the PRC wants to be for iron, copper, nickel, manganese, and the like. Disrespectful states will find supplies and prices turning against them.
2) As the Chinese economy leaps past those of the US and EU, Beijing will increase its clout by firmer strategic management of foreign investments and access to its home market. Play along or face reduced investment and less access to 1.4 billion and growing population with rising disposable incomes.
3) The growing PLA must be able to control sea lanes to and from world markets and project power into vital regions such as the Persian Gulf, Africa, and South Africa.
4) China will stand at the helm of a vast co-prosperity sphere of scores of semi-independent but beholden states. Almost all of them will be authoritarian. Beijing sees such governance as more effective for the times and more reliable as a partner. An election can bring momentous changes that can pose problems for China’s march forward.
Western democracies, when economically checked and deferent to Beijing, serve in developing useful technologies and buying Chinese goods.
Myanmar’s place on the march
China’s most important ally is of course Russia. North Korea serves to intimidate East Asia and the US and show that the latter cannot ensure the former’s security anymore. Myanmar is not a military or economic power but it does serve important roles.
1) Myanmar is located along sea lanes connecting China with Middle Eastern oil, African commodities, and European markets. The US, Australia, Japan, and India – the “Quad” – have recently held joint naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific region to signal their ability to dominate sea lanes. China wants Myanmar to form, along with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Iran, a counterbalance to the Quad.
2) If the army succeeds in ending representative government in Myanmar, it will support Beijing’s view that democracy is a western form of government with little relevance elsewhere. Democracy brings insistent crowds, bickering partisan groupings, and national decay. China presents itself as a model of elite leadership, disciplined subjects, and orderly national policies. It expects those in its co-prosperity sphere to see the virtues of a well-ordered state.
3) Ending democracy in Myanmar will have symbolic importance in the Sino-American rivalry, It will send the signal that China will determine more events in the world, now that the US is receding in appeal, prestige, and national coherence.
China isn’t going to destroy an American armada. Its ascendance will take place in a series of steps – the Belt and Road Initiative, adding military bases, letting North Korea bark and snap before proudly muzzling it, burdening the US in Afghanistan. The culmination will be raising a flag over Taipei, not an American territory. Myanmar is a leg in the march.
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Success often brings resentment, as when the American Century began after World War Two. Today, there is a large youth cohort in the world. Many countries have well over fifty percent of their populations under twenty-five. And we live in a period of increased political activity. China’s actions on Hong Kong, Myanmar, and in its own Islamic regions may be attracting this world youth cohort’s interest and ire.
In surpassing the US in economic might and political clout, China may also replace the US as the prime target of blame, resentment, activism, and violence. The focus is intensified by a Chinese sense of destiny and superiority – “Chinese chauvinism”. Myanmar crowds are already attacking Chinese-owned businesses.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.