Brian M Downing
Over the weekend the young crown prince ordered the arrest of more of his relatives. He claimed they were plotting against him. The move might stem from the paranoia autocratic rulers are given to. Stalin went after Trotsky, even after he was in exile and no longer a threat to his power. He also destroyed, for no apparent reason, Bukharin, Kirov, Kamenev, Zinoviev, and scores of others. Maybe thousands of others.
However, members of the royal family might well have been looking for a way to depose MBS, or all least discussing the matter. The young prince’s rise to first in line came quickly and unexpectedly. It didn’t happen without riling those passed over or those hoping for rule based on consensus among the great princes, not the decrees of one of the younger ones. Other issues figure as well.
Like most of the Sunni princes of the Gulf, MBS has been relatively quiet on the Palestinian issue. Netanyahu has strengthened his hold on the West Bank, gotten the US to move its embassy, and makes probers of resolve near the Temple Mount. The Palestinians once figured highly in Saudi foreign policy and public announcements. No more. The Saudi monarchy is aligned with Netanyahu. At times it seems beholden to him.
Despite massive military spending and legions of smartly appointed troops, the defense of the kingdom remains inept. The army is faring poorly against the ragtag Houthis in Yemen. The ISIL war took place without significant Saudi troops – unless we count those fighting in ISIL forces. Air defenses failed to intercept Iranian missiles and drones, resulting in damaged oil facilities.
Kings establish their power prestige through leadership in war That’s what the revered Abdul Aziz did in the 1920s when he gathered tribal hosts, drove the Rashidis and Hashemites from the Arabian Peninsula, and began a great dynasty. His successors have never shown any martial skill, only varying degrees of business acumen. That’s not very inspiring or daunting. The Saudi army is commanded by royal dilettantes and hangers-on. Mid-level officers see their careers stymied, their homeland endangered. More and more western troops come in.
MBS is tarnishing the image of the kingdom by imprisoning, torturing, and executing opponents. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi is only the most notable and lasting example. Instead of modernizing and liberalizing the kingdom, he is making it look more like one of the oriental despotisms of western prejudices.
The crown prince’s proposed industrialization program is likely welcome to most of the royals. However, there is likely considerable concern that it will bring more returns to the prince’s appointees than to the genuinely qualified, let alone to Saudi subjects. Traditionalists fear that industrialization will place the kingdom on the same dismal path of self-indulgence and moral decay that the West has gone down.
Industrialization will at least disburse government money at home. The crown prince has been lavishing money abroad. The armies of Egypt, Pakistan, and Lebanon receive generous subsidies. Schools and mosques spread the faith but at considerable expense. And of course every year American and British defense industries parade dazzling new hardware before the eager prince.
The Saudi prince and all his policies and ambitions of course rely on oil revenue. In recent months, prices have softened. In recent days, production agreements have collapsed and prices are retesting the lows of five years ago. All the prince’s plans and rivalries will be taking place in a period of austerity, suspicion, and resentment.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.