Brian M Downing
The US has responded to the failing effort by sending in more troops, asking the Afghan government to reform, shifting to counterinsurgency operations, demanding cooperation from Pakistan, sending in more advisors, and increasing the number of airstrikes. They have all failed to halt the Taliban. It has continued to grow, in part because of support from Russia, Iran, and Pakistan and because of China’s influence with the irremediably corrupt and incompetent Kabul government.
The US must recognize the new game and its implications and respond with a thoughtful strategy, not tired promises to see it through. There is a way to be done with the war and turn the tables on the four regional adversaries. It does not entail protracted dialogue or more troops or spending more money.
It only calls for withdrawing from Afghanistan.
The US should notify Afghanistan, China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan that it’s winding down military operations and development programs. All military personnel will be out in one year and aid programs will be but a trickle, if that. The US has done all it can, the problem is now in their hands.
The four powers will have no choice but to take up the burden. They have too much invested and too much at stake. China has developed iron, copper, and rare earth mines, as well as oil and gas fields in the north. It has built railroads and highways to bring the products west into Iran, south into Pakistan, and north into Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan is key to the exploitation of Central Asia and expanding the Chinese co-prosperity sphere.
Russia is worried by Islamist militancy in Afghanistan. It’s already spreading into former Soviet republics which Moscow views as part of its historical domain, or Near Abroad. Success there will embolden Muslim populations in Russia itself, especially in Chechnya, Dagestan, and the newly annexed Crimea. ISIL has small pockets in Afghanistan and its leaders openly state their intentions of striking back at Russia for intervention in Syria. The campaign for a new caliphate will, in ISIL’s estimation, begin anew in “Khorasan”, a venerable term for Afghanistan and surrounding regions oft-mentioned in today’s Islamist apocalyptic literature.
China too worries of Islamist militancy, not only in Central Asia but in Muslim parts of western China. Thousands of Uighurs are already serving with ISIL and al Qaeda in the Levant and Afghanistan. Uighur terrorism has hit many parts of China, even Beijing.
Iran sees the Islamist militant groups just to its east as virulently anti-Shia. The Taliban and kindred groups have slaughtered Shias in central Afghanistan and among refugee populations in Pakistan. Tehran sees ties, albeit indirect ones, between the Taliban and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan’s Deobandi madrasas are an intermediary. Riyadh funds those schools and many alumni go on to graduate work in militant groups. As the Saudis yearn for greater conflict with Iran, Afghanistan may become a theater of operations.
All four powers want to profit from the exploitation of Afghan and Central Asian riches. Pakistan is desperate for economic vitality and will be more so once Americans no longer use its ports and roads to support the effort to the north. Pakistan wants commerce from the north to inject money into the economy and bring wealth to Karachi and Gwadar.
Having encouraged Islamist militancy and helped create the Taliban, Pakistani generals must worry that their creations will turn against them – Frankenstein along the Durand Line. Pakistan’s Pashtun population is already hostile to the government and may want political integration with the Taliban, which of course is a Pashtun movement and possibly a separatist one at that.
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© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.