Brian M Downing
This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian protests – spirited, sometimes violent, but largely unarmed – were suppressed by the IDF, leaving about 60 dead and hundreds wounded.
Israel has emerged from beleaguered new land and become regional power broker. It holds considerable influence in Washington, Moscow, and Riyadh – a formidable diplomatic achievement by any measure. PM Netanyahu’s support in the first two capitals remans strong. However, he may not be adequately judging how his recent actions are playing in Riyadh and other capitals in the anti-Iran Entente.
Sunni rulers
Israel was once a hated enemy in the Middle East. The Jewish state was a foreign settlement in an Arab world that had for centuries been interfered with, humiliated, and subjugated by foreigners. Resentment grew after the small state defeated Arab coalitions in war after war. Money and arms flowed to opponents of Israel – armies and terrorists alike.
Rising Iranian-Shia power, or at least the perception of it, brought strategic reconsideration. Sunnis shuddered at the revolutionary zeal of Khomeini’s Iran. Israel, a strong supporter of Iran, both under the shah and in the first decade of Khomeini’s rule, reappraised the relationship once Iran made Hisbollah a powerful force in Lebanon. Israel now aligns squarely with the Sunnis in the present sectarian confrontation.
Alignment has brought Sunni acquiescence to Likud programs in the West Bank and Gaza. Settlements proceed without criticism from Sunni rulers. Even the shootings this week brought no outrage. The anti-Shia alliance has priority and the Palestinians were never more than a low-value chip in the regional power game.
Sunni publics
Rulers are often not in touch with their subjects and this might be especially so in Sunni monarchies. Middle- and working-class subjects have long been told, in school and at Friday prayers, that Israel is a “satanic” intrusion into the Islamic world and that the Palestinians are oppressed brethren. Now, both notions have been expunged from official discourse.
The Palestinian cause is nevertheless made clear in regional media. Al Jazeera has focused on events in the West Bank and Gaza for quite some time, all the more so after the Sunni powers imposed sanctions on Qatar, which bankrolls the network. Iranian media are broadcasting the same message. Perhaps their intelligence officers are doing the same inside Sunni monarchies.
The subjects’ outlook on the Palestinian cause resonates with frustrations over lack of opportunity and disaffection with haughty elites. The Arab Spring has come and gone for the most part, but discontent lingers and ferments. Opposition will spread inside the monarchies, strengthening liberal reformers, the Muslim Brotherhood, traditionalist tribes, and Islamist militants such as ISIL and al Qaeda. Friday prayers will be monitored, by foreign observers, opposition groups, and internal security bureaus.
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Heady from his skillful diplomacy and the US embassy move, Netanyahu may not comprehend the risk of destabilizing turmoil facing strategic partners. If the turmoil were to reach critical levels, it could weaken Israel internationally and himself at home.
The PM may come to realize, if he hasn’t calculated long ago, that he holds a throttle of sorts on Arab turmoil in the region. He can nudge it with repressive measures in Gaza and the West Bank or boost it to destabilizing levels with provocative actions, say, on the Temple Mount – allowing prayer outside al Aqsa or calling for a new holy site to be built alongside it. Perhaps the realization is dawning in Riyadh as well.
© 2018 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks to Susan Ganosellis.