Brian M Downing
National security bureaus worry. That’s what they’re paid to do and they look for threats day and night. Sometimes they overstate dangers, often they seize upon worst-case scenarios. Israeli security figures must be looking on events in the US and wondering if fiscal and political problems will paralyze the country in coming decades and make it unwilling or unable to come to Israel’s aid in time of dire need.
However, jarring events in neighboring countries and adroit Israeli diplomacy make it far more secure than might be expected. Though of course Israel’s security bureaus will continue to worry.
The US-Israel partnership
Israel wasn’t always strategically close to the US. It was far closer to Britain and France in the quarter century after 1948. IDF airpower was based on Mirages, Phantoms came only later. The US opposed the British-French-Israeli invasion of Sinai (1956) and even forced the three powers to withdraw – rather dishonorably.
The Yom Kippur War (1973) changed that. Washington hurriedly dispatched antitank missiles and armor and US and Israeli technicians labored to overcome the Arab air defenses taking a toll on Israeli jets. The tide was turned and the Egyptian army neared collapse, Washington placed troops on alert to counter a Soviet intervention. (My unit was one of those on alert.)
The ensuing oil embargo drove Britain and France away and the US became Israel’s most formidable ally. Foreign aid multiplied, Israel received the latest US military equipment, and GIs operate an antimissile battery in the Negev.
Traditional enemies
Israel has fought major wars in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973 against Arab states, chiefly Egypt and Syria, though Iraq and Jordan have played supportive roles. Most of them have either come to terms with Israel or descended into turmoil. Some have done both.
Egypt and Jordan have signed peace agreements with Israel. Sinai reverted to Cairo’s control. The border is militarized but there’ve been no serious incidents. A multinational force, including US troops, patrols the region.
Syria and Iraq are deeply divided along sectarian and ethnic lines. The Syrian economy is in a shambles and large swathes of the country are occupied by Turkish troops and Sunni-Kurdish militias under American and British aegis. Iraq is only somewhat more coherent. Its government is barely able to form coalitions. Kurds and Sunnis dislike their Shia rulers and yearn for autonomy or more.
Arab countries hold large youth populations. About fifty percent are under the age of twenty-five. Their prospects for careers and families are highly limited. No government policies can remedy the problem.
AQ and ISIL have taken beatings in recent years but their appeal remains strong with many young men. Egypt faces Islamist militants in cities, Sinai, and areas resentful of growing state penetration. Eastern Syria, Western Iraq, and Jordan have increasingly active ISIL networks.
States and armies near Israel will be preoccupied with internal problems for the foreseeable future. Divisions in society are in the ranks as well. No government will have the support needed to rally the nation and conduct a major war.
Iran
The nuclear threat that the Likud and Neoconservatives repeatedly point to is not supported by other parts of the respective governments, including intelligence services. Iran does not have weapons-grade material and the international pressure to keep it that way is powerful. Russia and China are highly supportive of Iran but will not permit it to have nuclear weapons.
Iranian ground forces are mostly far away from Israel and preoccupied with separatist threats from the Kurds, Arabs, and Balochs. They took high casualties in Syria were disappointing to both Damascus and Moscow. The IRGC contingent in Syria poses no offensive threat to Israel and is subjected to routine airstrikes which Russia does not object to.
Hisbollah, the Shia response to Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon in the 1980s, is of no offensive threat either. Its ground forces and missiles are a deterrent to another IDF invasion.
Next: Israeli diplomacy with the Sunni monarchies and Russia
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.