Iraq’s special forces and the battle for Mosul – and Iraq 

Brian M Downing

Iraqi forces began the effort to retake Mosul from ISIL some ten weeks ago. Though ISIL troops are greatly outnumbered, and have no defense from airstrikes, they have put up a formidable defense of their prized Iraqi holding. ISIL fighters continue to demonstrate that they are the best Arab troops in the region. Iraqi special forces are doing most of the block-by-block combat and have taken serious casualties.

Resistance may continue for several more weeks, or even months. Iraq and the US are unwilling to use the brutal tactics employed by Russia and Syria on Aleppo. The battle for Mosul has implications for the future of Iraq – and perhaps Syria too.

The military and Mosul

ISIL swept through northern Iraq almost effortlessly in 2014. Plagued by sectarian tensions and corrupt leadership, Iraqi army units showed their boot heels. Since then, Shia politicians in parliament have prevented professionalization of the regular army. Campaigns against ISIL at Tikrit, Ramadi, Fallujah, and now at Mosul have been led by special forces units, where officers are more professional and the rank and file have developed greater cohesion.

After so many costly campaigns, the special forces may be nearing exhaustion. Indeed, they had to pull back for two weeks in order to bring fresh troops into their battalions. Though crucial, this can weaken cohesion and efficacy.

Elite units may be too worn down to finish the Mosul operation, at least in a timely manner. ISIL likely senses this and hopes to deliver a crushing below that will allow them to hold on to the city. While zealotry can unduly influence judgment, ISIL leaders may not be far off on this.

Special forces troops take deep pride in their combat successes. However, they almost certainly deeply resent taking so many casualties while the rest of the army is content to remain in safe, secondary roles. Resentment may be especially directed at affluent Baghdad politicians who’ve blocked army reform over the years.

Resentful elite units, especially those enjoying public acclaim, have been trouble for frail, corrupt political systems. This danger will not be lost in Baghdad, where every politician is aware of the litany of coups since the Hashemite monarchs came in through force and were deposed the same way.

The military after Mosul

Once ISIL is effectively defeated, weakened special forces will present serious trouble for the country. The regular army isn’t up to the central mission of defending the country.

Conflict with the Kurds is coming over their 2014 seizure of Arab lands and oilfields. Confronting the Kurd peshmergas is unthinkable without the country’s best troops.

Similarly, Shia militias have been important in the ISIL war and have been establishing themselves as a de facto government in lands they retook. This of course presents the potential for political incoherence and a power struggle between the doddering government of the staid Haider al Abadi and the spirited militias of the charismatic Moqtada al Sadr.

A further source of political incoherence of course is the Sunnis. Many of them welcomed ISIL, at least for a while, and do not look forward to a return to Shia rule. Many Sunnis are armed and wary of Iraqi troops and militias. Without effective troops, Baghdad will lose altogether any claim to govern Iraq.

The battle for Reqqa 

A few hundred kilometers west of Mosul, the US is preparing an Arab-Kurdish force, the Syrian Democratic Forces, to retake ISIL’s Syrian capital, Reqqa. The SDF and their American advisors cannot be heartened by the protracted battle for Mosul.

SDF fighters are a patchwork of warlord bands who are not as well trained as Iraqi special forces battalions. Logistics in that remote part of Syria are more difficult than in a major city not terribly far from Baghdad. And the Arab-Kurdish coalition presents the possibility of serious problems of cohesion and finger-pointing in battle.

Copyright 2017 Brian M Downing

Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.