Close on the heels of last April’s China-Pakistan agreement to build a communication corridor connecting the two countries, comes word of a similar arrangement. India, Iran, and Afghanistan have agreed to build a corridor running from northwestern Afghanistan to the Iranian port of Chabahar.
The deal comes shortly after the P5+1 nuclear deal and its survival in the US congress. Iran is emerging from sanctions and reentering the world community. France has sent a planeload of business and government leaders. India and Afghanistan also see opportunity.
Located on the Arabian Sea, outside the Strait of Hormuz, Chabahar is scarcely a hundred miles west of Gwadar – a port recently built by China which figures in the China-Pakistan agreement. The Chabahar corridor is a rival with both economic and geopolitical significance. The US may see benefits, too, if only grudgingly.
Iran
Indo-Afghan business will boost the Iranian economy, especially in the southeast, fueling an economy only emerging from tough international sanctions. The increased commerce through the port of Chabahar will of course due the same and the well-placed port may in time serve as an export location for Central Asian goods, perhaps gas from Turkmenistan.
The view from Tehran is that menacing Sunni forces lie just to its east and west and that many of them are backed by Riyadh. The deal will increase Iranian security to its east, where Sunni groups pose a threat, if only a moderate one. The Taliban, Lashkar-i-Janghvi, al Qaeda, and splinter groups loyal to ISIL operate freely in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and violently oppose Shiism. Some enjoy the support of Pakistani intelligence, some that of Saudi intelligence.
India
A growing Asian industrial power, India buys a substantial amount of oil and gas from Iran, and agreed only reluctantly and partially to UN sanctions. India is firming its position in northern Afghanistan and acquiring a reliable export route that does not depend on Pakistan which is becoming uncomfortably distant from Washington, close to Beijing, and increasingly unstable.
The Chabahar corridor will irk both Islamabad and China – irk but hopefully not provoke. Pakistan has long worried about India’s influence to its north in Afghanistan, which goes back to the time of Russian influence over Kabul and the war of the 1980s. Indeed, Pakistan’s support for the Taliban began in the mid-1990s as a way to counter Hindu influence and open Central Asia to Pakistani commerce. Pakistan cannot be pleased with this move. Its generals will be angry.
Afghanistan
Mired in seemingly endless war, Afghanistan may benefit the most, though nothing comes easy there. Iran and India have long provided military and economic aid to Afghanistan. Indeed, when American special forces and CIA personnel reached Northern Alliance forces after the 9/11 attacks, they found Iranian counterparts had been there for decades.
Afghanistan saw the US raise its hands in disgust and leave back in the early 90s. It fears Americans may do the same in coming years. Iran and India will not. They have more immediate concerns with Sunni militancy and will help develop the country. While preferring the US handled security, they will contribute more military assistance if needed one day.
Iran and India will likely concentrate on northern Afghanistan where the Taliban is relatively weak. The worst case scenario for the war is for much of the south and east to fall to the Taliban, with only a Pashtun pocket in the north-central region following suit. Those areas will be in turmoil, sizable parts of their populations will likely flee, and international aid will be limited. The north, by contrast, will be relatively attractive.
The US
Though not a party to the trade agreement, the US has undoubtedly been watching the negotiations. Afghanistan’s economic prospects have brightened somewhat. Its iron, copper, and rare earths will find eager buyers on world markets and will not be monopolized by China.
The Pentagon may recognize that opening the port of Chabahar to Afghan commerce may one day offer an alternate and more dependable supply route. Presently, the US relies on a northern route controlled by Russia, and a southern route controlled by Pakistan. Dependence on the former limits US responses to Putin’s moves in the Ukraine and Syria; dependence on the latter places the US at the mercy of calculating Pakistani generals. A short phone call between Moscow and Islamabad could maroon tens of thousands of Americans.
Further, an export route through Iran’s port of Chabahar will prevent Afghanistan from becoming overly dependent on China and Pakistan and allow for greater competition in Central Asia in coming decades. The Great Game continues, though with new players.
Problems
No action on the world stage comes without complications. Stronger ties with Iran and India will be welcome in the north where Tajiks and Uzbeks and Hazaras have long benefited from India and Iran. However, Pashtun regions, even those not aligned with the Taliban, will resent ties with countries widely deemed alien or heretical.
Ethnic tensions may worsen from remote provinces to the capital of Kabul. There, in the aftermath of a controversial election, reside uncomfortably two presidents – a Pashtun looking south and a Tajik looking north. Commerce brings prosperity but also divisions. Awarding contracts and sharing revenue will be deeply contested.
The trade route from Afghanistan to Chabahar passes through the Baloch region of Iran which is presently experiencing a low-level insurgency. Greater wealth and vulnerable traffic will encourage Balochs to raise that level. Saudi Arabia will encourage any enterprise that weakens a Shia power.
Pakistani intelligence, as noted, supports the Taliban as a way to limit or expel Indian influence in Afghanistan. It can hardly be pleased to see a twenty-year policy damaged by a few pen strokes. It will be inclined to use its proxies in Afghanistan to subvert business enterprises and interdict commerce. Saudi Arabia will encourage it.
©2015 Brian M Downing
The Iran deal looks more and more like one step for world peace and one giant step for world trade. This column is maybe years ahead of it’s time but it seems right on target. The Pakistani military is reflexively destructive. Maybe they’ll want to cooperate when Baluchistan gets tired of the bad treatment it receives from the Pakistani government.