Brian M Downing
The Biden administration’s plans to return to the JCPOA are not proceeding well. Obstacles were expected from congress, K Street, and Middle Eastern allies but the most serious one is, paradoxically, from the power with the most to gain – Iran.
Tehran has refused to enter talks until sanctions are lifted (understandable but haughty), continued uranium-enrichment, and instructed Shia militias in Iraq to strike US targets. An Israeli ship was damaged in the Gulf recently and the Houthis, shortly after being removed from the US terror watch, launched an offensive on Marib and fired a missile on Saudi oil assets. Iran isn’t making things easy for Biden – or itself. He has nothing to gain from rapprochement and a lot to lose.
Are these simply wrongheaded calculations by an insular obtuse military-religious elite or is a strategic plan unfolding? The generals and mullahs may be willing to endure continued sanctions on their people in order to achieve gain at America’s expense.
Elections
Iran will hold a presidential election on June 18. Continued tensions with the US, especially with today’s sanctions, justify continued hardline rule and impugn western-oriented reformers. The mullahs and generals will present themselves as having guided the nation through dangerous times from Iraq’s invasion in 1980 to the US threats of today. Dangers persist, why change?
Iran, in the mullahs and generals’ pronouncements, is surrounded by sectarian enemies, including Saudi Arabia and the Emirates to the west. To the east Pakistan, subsidized by Riyadh, hosts Baluch separatists who fight in southeastern Iran. The US is a key part of this encircling pact. Without it, the Sunnis pose no grave danger.
The rulers want a hardliner in the presidency, limited though the office’s powers are. Better to establish a unified front for the nation – in the presidency and in time the parliament as well. This will of course smooth the eventual transition to the Islamic Republic’s third Supreme Leader which will probably come in a few years.
Tehran may have the March 23 elections in Israel in mind as well. Continued Likud governance will strengthen Iranian perceptions of foreign danger. (The Israeli public will feel the same about Iranian hardliners in power.) Mossad almost certainly has been behind a decade of assassinations and bombings. In any event, there is no sizable Israeli party in favor of easing tensions with Iran or moving away from the Sunni monarchies.
Likud governments have weakened ties with the European Union and increased world support for boycotts and sanctions. Even many American supporters now look at PM Netanyahu and see not so much a strong statesman as a Trump-like politician.
Deepen the wedge between US and allies
Washington was able to build an impressive coalition to bring about the JCPOA but stood alone when it exited the agreement only a few years later. Most states abide by the sanctions not because of Washington’s intelligence but because of its wrath.
American allies in Europe and Asia were annoyed. After all, they’d lost commerce with a country of 80 million people with rising disposable incomes and a taste for consumer goods. Iran benefits from this, as do its chief allies Russia and China.
However, Iran is misplaying things now. Refusing to negotiate and accelerating enrichment worry the EU, South Asia, and East Asia. Attacks on US positions in Iraq aren’t helpful. Conciliation should be prevailing over retaliation. Instead, Iran is squandering the goodwill it’s developed since the US quit the nuclear treaty, and inviting suspicions regarding just what Iran’s intentions are.
Next: Might Iran opt for nuclear weapons?
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.