Brian M Downing
Saudi Arabia is likely to emerge from the ongoing conflict with Iran as master of the Gulf. The US and Israel are seeing to that, though they may rue the day. In coming years Mohammad bin Salman, the 33-year-old heir apparent, may make his realm vastly more powerful than it is today. By means of military assistance, economic ties, and popular acclaim, he may rule a veritable empire stretching from Morocco to Pakistan. And he may do so for the next 60 years.
Leadership in Riyadh
Mohammad bin Salman was raised in luxury and privilege. His father and uncles were the Sidari Seven, the clique that’s held sway in the kingdom since the death of the warrior-king Abdul Aziz in 1952. The crown prince has risen to supreme power though skill and ruthlessness. Opponents have been arrested and put to death – at home and abroad.
Like his predecessors, the prince envisions his kingdom as not only the patrimony conquered by his grandfather and his bedouin army, but also a providentially-ordained realm with a great destiny. Providence chose Arabia as the land where the Koran was revealed to the Prophet, the religion took root, and fearless hosts proved the faith’s greatness by subjugating immense territories.
Mohammad bin Salman wants to end centuries of the Islamic world’s fragmentation and weakness. Paradoxically, though cunningly, he’s forged a partnership with the US and Israel – states his clan, sect, and schooling deem satanic enemies – to vanquish Iran and increase his power. In time he’ll try to make himself one of Islam’s great rulers. His name will be placed alongside those of Saladin and Mohammad Ali Pasha.
Popular support for restoration
Many Middle Easterners, especially the large youth population, are deeply discontented with their personal lot and the dismal state of the Islamic world. They know of ibn Khaldun’s observation on the cyclic nature of Islamic empires and yearn for renewed greatness and power.
Their discontent may be ended by this son of Saud.
For centuries the Middle East has been invaded, humiliated, and occupied. Crusaders, imperialists, Jewish settlers, and American soldiers have written their will across the land. Middle Easterners see themselves as constituting a redoubt of faith surrounded and encroached upon by decadent foreign powers.
Once home to invincible hosts that conquered an empire, the region has failed to build an armed force that could stand up to western counterparts. Israel defeated the combined might of several Arab states in four wars and seized territory. The US destroyed the Iraqi army in short order on two occasions and maintains large bases throughout the Gulf.
Leaders in the region have been corrupt and inept. Many took power in military coups and promised a new day of national pride and opportunity. Nasser, Assad, Qaddafi, and Saddam are cases in point. They themselves repeated the faults of their predecessors.
Arab peoples yearn for restored strength and unity. The Muslim Brotherhood promises this but is outlawed in many countries for opposition to monarchies, secularism, and rigged elections. ISIL and al Qaeda call for a return to past glory and though they represent a dark form of the imperial aspiration, they continue to inspire recruits and fight on.
A popular base for a Saudi empire has already been formed. Riyadh has long sponsored mosques and schools in many parts of the Islamic world to disseminate the Wahabbi/Salafist creed. Clerics and teachers run charitable organizations which help the poor and spread the word. Promising students are sent to Mecca and Medina for advanced study before returning to further the effort.
Industrialization
Mohammad bin Salman has begun a far-reaching program to industrialize the kingdom. If it succeeds, Saudi Arabia will no longer be simply an oil exporter, albeit one of the largest. It will have a diverse economy driven by manufacturing, investment banking, solar power, and military industries.
Investments will be spread across the region but of course with the royal family as a board of directors. Young people will have jobs and futures. Middle classes and professionals will burgeon. They will look upon Saudi Arabia as a benevolent power that has renewed the Islamic world and freed it from the West.
War
Victory in war has been one of the most important bases of charisma and legitimacy. Europe had its Charlemagne and Napoleon. Both the US and Soviet Union emerged from the Second World War with infusions of legitimacy. Indeed, Soviet communism might have fallen well before it did if it hadn’t gathered an immense reservoir of power prestige by defeating the Third Reich.
Saudi Arabia could enjoy a tremendous boost in legitimacy, at home and abroad, with victory over Iran, the Houthis of Yemen, and transnational groups such as al Qaeda and ISIL. Success in war and industrialization could win considerable popular support for the kingdom and weaken the attraction of radical militancy.
Critics of the kingdom will be marginalized. Dissidents will be seen as ungrateful, eccentric, and even abnormal. And of course the state will have formidable repressive capacities ranging from hi-tech surveillance to stout cudgels.
Political-military arrangements
Saudi Arabia will be positioned to hegemonize the region. Surrounding countries will benefit from a co-prosperity sphere, subsidies, and ties to a victorious power.
Ambition for overt territorial control probably does not rival that of Napoleon or the Reich. They had powerful armies; Saudi Arabia doesn’t. Overt expansion could be limited to Qatar, Iran’s oil-rich Arab province (Khuzestan), and disputed regions with Oman. Other countries and regions will be integrated into the Saudi sphere through trade and subsidies. The GCC countries are already closely tied to Riyadh.
Kurdish parts of Syria, Iraq, and Iran may be assisted in achieving autonomy and become grateful vassals. The same may hold for disgruntled Sunnis in eastern Syria and western Iraq.
Riyadh hasn’t been able to build an effective indigenous army but it’s been diligently subsidizing armed forces in the region for quite some time. The Egyptian army couldn’t have seized and retained power without Saudi help. Nor could the Pakistani nuclear program succeeded without Riyadh’s financial support.
Mohammad bin Salman will have the means to counter another of ibn Khaldun’s cyclical descents from imperial greatness. His subsidies exceed anything an Abbasid or Fatimid ruler could draw upon and his means of repression are far more than anything they could dream of, except in nightmares. Whether the crown prince becomes Mohammad the Great or Mohammad the Terrible has yet to be determined. However, policymakers in Washington, Jerusalem, and elsewhere should ask that question.
[Analysis of frailties in a Saudi empire and of opposition to it will be considered next.]
© 2019 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.