Brian M Downing
Wars end in different ways, though some go on and on. After World War Two both Germany and Japan were completely defeated by victorious armies. Their armies were disbanded, leaders put on trial, and political systems fundamentally changed. That will not happen in the Russian war on Ukraine. Neither side can conquer the other. What endings are likely? What chances would a meaningful ceasefire have?
Ceasefires
Some wars end when belligerents realize neither can win, then negotiate a ceasefire – either in place or with withdrawals. Some lead to lasting peace, others do not. Ceasefires ended World War One, the Korean War, Indian-Pakistani conflicts, and the Vietnam War. None brought enduring peace.
World War One ended with a negotiated armistice but the German army disintegrated and the allies took full advantage, setting the stage for an imposed peace and revanchist war. India and Pakistan have agreed to ceasefires but continue to clash routinely. The same is true to some extent with North and South Korea. North Vietnam never abided by the ‘73 accords and two years later its tanks rolled into Saigon
A ceasefire today
The record of ceasefires bringing lasting peace isn’t good. However, each war has its own context and dynamics. There are three conditions conducive to a Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire. None is likely to come about for many months, if then.
First, Kyiv will not accept a ceasefire while significant parts of its territory are occupied. A ceasefire would be most likely only after Russian troops have been driven back to roughly the 2014 borders.
Second, Moscow will not accept a ceasefire as long as it thinks it still has offensive punch and can win the war within a year or so. It’s clear to outsiders that Russia can no longer mount major offensives. But only optimistic reports reach Moscow’s corridors of power. It will take more setbacks before reality sets in.
Third, external guarantors are needed to prevent ceasefire violations and a new war. Ukraine will not violate an agreement as long as most of its territory is free; the West wouldn’t support such a violation in any case. Russia, however, will be angered by defeat and eager to renew the war someday. Restoration of lost territory and prestige is an obsession, not just with Putin but also with the military, state, and their subjects.
Beijing is the only possible guarantor of Russian compliance. China is increasingly critical to Russia’s export revenue, currency, and diplomatic position. It may prevent its ally – its only powerful ally – from destroying itself with an Ahab-like obsession that endangers China’s return to global hegemony. However, China cannot be relied upon to keep Russia in line indefinitely. Both states want to weaken the West and end American preeminence.
Rearmament
Mistrust and enmity will continue and both sides will prepare for the next war, as with the early Reich, India and Pakistan, the Vietnams, and the Koreas. Who would benefit more from a lengthy but impermanent ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?
Russia lacks the organization, economic resources, and technology to rebuild its military. Pressing as reform is, cronyism and corruption are deeply entrenched in army, state, and industry. The army cannot adequately train or equip recruits. The economy will weaken this year as sanctions and falling export revenue hit home. Hi-tech components for aircraft, armor, and communication gear will be difficult to get, leaving the army with equipment that’s damaged, old, and inferior.
Not so Ukraine. NATO will be relentless in rebuilding the Ukrainian military, which reformed itself after Russia’s 2014 invasion and is becoming a formidable, perhaps daunting regional power. Recruits train in basic tactics and advanced weapons in-country and in NATO states. Some are training now on Patriot missile systems in Oklahoma. Main battle tanks are beginning to come in, sophisticated aircraft will follow. Similar buildups are going on from Finland to Romania. Ukraine may one day officially join NATO, though for all practical purposes it’s in now.
Seeing Ukraine benefiting from the ceasefire and becoming insuperable will alarm Russia. But a preemptive attack would not fare any better than last year’s. Russia is not going to become a peaceful democracy. Nor will domestic turmoil end its will for empire. Russia will continue the war if only at a low level with drone and missile attacks and cross-border raids. Regrettably, this may be the optimal outcome.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.