Brian M Downing
Henry Kissinger died yesterday at the age of one hundred – fifty-four years after becoming Richard Nixon’s foreign policy architect. He directed policy at critical junctures of the Cold War and amid the Vietnam conflict, He remained a commentator on world affairs until only a few months ago.
Kissinger’s outlook was forged by his Harvard studies of the post-Napoleonic era when powerful men thought they could make binding agreements to prevent rebellion and keep the peace. He will be remembered most for the opening to China, the Vietnam War, Detente with the Soviet Union, and shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. How lasting were his accomplishments?
Opening to China
Kissinger correctly saw past the idea of monolithic communism. China and the Soviet Union had disagreements going back at least to the Korean War. Stalin wanted the North to attack while Mao and Chou wanted calm after decades of war. As the North’s positions collapsed, China felt the need to intervene. The subsequent draw entailed hundreds of thousands of casualties, including Mao’s son.
Only weeks after Nixon took office, the Soviets and Chinese fought sharp border engagements over land tsars took from emperors. Kissinger saw opportunity and initiated secret meetings with Chou which led to Nixon’s famed visit to China in ’72 and a stunning geopolitical shift. A few years later China helped the US support Afghan rebels fight Soviet troops.
Mao and Chou were thinking more long-term than Nixon and Kissinger. Aligning with the US would bring industrialization and growth – a first step in the long march back to great power status. US diplomacy ultimately, and perhaps unpredictably, created a modern army and state determined to replace the US as global hegemon. It’s unfair to criticize Kissinger for the denouement but it’s difficult to continue praising him.
Vietnamization
Kissinger’s more immediate problem was the war in Southeast Asia. It couldn’t be fought as before. Public opposition was strong and elite disaffection jumped after the ’68 Tet offensive. Dean Acheson and The Wall Street Journal urged a change of course. Nixon called off big ground ops after the high casualties at Hamburger Hill in May ’69. The US decided to “Vietnamese” the war, ie shift the burden of fighting and casualties to the S Vietnamese army (ARVN). Time was bought with bombing campaigns and ground incursions in Cambodia.
By the end of 1970 US troops levels and casualties were down two-thirds. The reports on ARVN effectiveness reaching the White House were upbeat. Vietnamization seemed to be working. But those with ARVN units knew the reports to be overly-optimistic – and often wrong. Nixon and Kissinger failed to see what every GI knew. Most ARVN units had poor leadership and weak cohesion. An experienced special forces officer confided to a young corporal that Saigon would fall two years after the US left. He was off by five weeks.
Detente
After the ’62 Cuban Missile Crisis with sides wanted to prevent return to the brink. Rhetoric cooled and meetings took place. Kissinger thought the Cold War could be ended with occasional visits and burgeoning trade. The hope was that meetings and trade would moderate Soviet behavior in the world and perhaps that the iron fist of Stalin would loosen.
The optics were impressive. Television covered heads of state deplaning in once hostile capitals and cordially shaking hands. In on event Leonid Brezhnev jumped into the embrace of cowboy actor Chuck Connors. Soviet behavior didn’t change. Security bureaus were unchanged and in charge. In late 1979 Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan and the US armed mujahideen bands to fight them. Detente was over. The term and its architect became objects of scorn, especially among conservatives.
Middle East
The US intervened forcefully in the ’73 Arab-Israeli war. Technicians cracked Egyptian air defenses, TOW missiles proved they worth against Soviet armor. When the Soviets threatened to send troops, the US did the same. The IDF won another resounding victory.
After the war, Kissinger’s persistent visits to Israel and Egypt brought dialog and in time, a lasting peace agreement. Jordan followed suit and over the years Saudi Arabia and the Emirates moved closer to Israel. A half century without a major war is an impressive legacy that’s lasted far longer than the Paris Agreement, Detente, and comity with China.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.