Great power rivalry and the pandemic

Brian M Downing

The Spanish Flu of 1918-20 took place at the end of a jarring world war that began the decline of European dominance. The Covid-19 pandemic is taking place amid a deepening contest between China, a rising power, and the United States, today’s sole hegemon. Over the years they’ve clashed over trade, territorial waters, control of commodities, and influence in Asia, Africa, and S America. The contest won’t stop or even pause.

The pandemic has halted much of life. Economies are imploding, most people are hunkered down. However, Washington and Beijing are seeking to use the situation to their advantage. Accusations of responsibility for the virus and the reliability of information began before the first US lockdown. More’s coming and some events will parallel those of the Cold War.

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Technological prowess

The US and the USSR competed for global recognition of scientific accomplishments and military equipment. Science and the military have been wedded for quite a while. When Sputnik was launched in 1957, the two powers vied for the prestige of putting their people into orbit and on the moon. The contest was close in the early 60s, but it ended in July of 1969.

China is reenacting part of the Cold War, seeking to garner world respect by sending probes to the moon. Its astronauts will head there in a few years. However, the pandemic presents the opportunity to demonstrate its scientific sophistication on Earth by presenting statistics, correlations, and precautions, though the accuracy of Beijing’s information is in doubt

The world will be grateful to whatever country discovers effective treatments for Covid-19, whether it’s the US, China, or anywhere else. A vaccine within a few months would astound a grateful world. Chinese scientists and firms have been on the case somewhat longer but American counterparts have the edge in scientific leadership, longstanding freedom from state oversight, and decades of innovativeness.

Economic aid

The US and USSR also competed by distributing economic aid to developing nations – the two Koreas, the two Vietnams, Egypt, and many other countries that became independent after WW2. The US and China are doing the same today. Covid-19 will devastate most world economies and recovery will be an important part of the Sino-American rivalry and the post-pandemic world.

American aid will be expected. It’s been part of Washington’s foreign policy at least since dollars and food went to European recovery after 1918, even to Germany. Later, there was the Marshall Plan.

China has been involved in foreign aid for decades, though often with unsavory stipulations which in the event of default, require handing over mines, sovereign territory, railroads, and port facilities. China is stepping back from that policy as it hurt its image and slowed the drive for supremacy. Beijing may now expand its prestige by forgiving debt in the developing world.

In the aftermath of the pandemic, with US debt hurtling toward $30 trillion, China may become what the US was following the world wars. And of course it was those cataclysms and their ruinous aftermaths that ended Europe’s dominance in the world and began the American Century.

The parallel will not be lost in Beijing, nor will the opportunity be squandered. Chinese largesse will deflect today’s blame for the virus and begin the new century for which the leadership has long planned and the people have long hoped for.

Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.