Brian M Downing
Ukrainian intelligence has been warning that N Korean troops are training in the Russian Far East for deployment in Ukraine. American intelligence now believes that some 10,000 N Korean soldiers, in Russian uniforms, are heading into the war. Moscow will likely be giving Pyongyang missile and nuclear technology and assurances of support in coming conflicts with S Korea. Money will change hands – yuan, not rubles.
Russian manpower
Costly wars force innovation. The Confederacy considered emancipating slaves and sending them to war. The idea of course went nowhere and Lee handed his sword to Grant not long thereafter. Britain and France recruited from their colonies in both world wars. By 1945 the Waffen SS fielded more non-Germans than Germans. Putin is looking to the Far East for help.
The Russian army has taken heavy casualties since early 2022. Western estimates are 115,000 dead, 500,000 wounded. Several hundred thousand young men have fled abroad, convict forces are nearly depleted, and deeper conscription will cause grumbling.
Putin must also be concerned by the absence of progress. Propaganda mills and security forces can lose effectiveness. At this point in the Great Patriotic War, Stalin could point to victories at the gates of Moscow, Stalingrad, and Kursk. Putin needs to show that his war isn’t a stalemate and that victory is around the corner. He needs fresh, spirited troops to do that.
Where and how effective
N Korean soldiers are highly disciplined and motivated. Their Spartan culture teaches duty to ruler, nation, and family and they won’t readily let them down. Generals have row after row of meretricious ribbons, though none signify actual combat experience. Officers are promoted by political loyalties not professional criteria. Initiative and adaptability are foreign words and unwelcome ideas. The soldiers will nonetheless stand up to hardships and casualties, including those from repeated, poorly-planned frontal assaults – the Russian way of war, brutal but not wholly ineffective.
Fresh troops should be given several weeks or months of gradual exposure to hostile fire before a major effort but Putin and Kim are eager to send them into the fires. They appear poised to attack the Ukrainian salient in Kursk. This will be accompanied by continued Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine which have demonstrated worrisome success in recent months. Pressure from the north and south could force withdrawal from Russian territory.
Potential problems
North Korean losses may be quite high in coming months. The forces are unlikely to experience flagging discipline or morale. The fallen will be revered back home and eager replacements will head for the steppes. The army has a million soldiers on active duty and half a million in reserves.
There’s already evidence that Russians are resenting transfer of materiel to the newcomers. Logistics aren’t their forte and seeing scarce equipment, including rations and cold weather gear, handed over to foreigners isn’t sitting well. Resentment may increase if the Korean attacks make sizable advances.This may be offset by seeing fewer Russian casualties, at least in some areas.
Resentment can work the other way. Asians in the Russian army already feel they are taking disproportionate casualties and Korean losses may underscore that sentiment.
Prospects
Ukrainians will face substantial pressure in the north and east. They’ve taken high casualties over the last thirty-two months of constant fighting. Morale has sagged and desertion is no longer unheard of. Replacements are becoming difficult. Economic and political problems after independence in 1991 led to emigration and low birth rates so the 18-30 cohort isn’t large. The Kursk salient, a source of pride in recent months, and more ground in the east may have to be abandoned.
Putin is betting that the Western response to his escalation will be weak or nonexistent. European publics are polarized and Washington may abdicate its position in the world soon. A response is essential. If North Korean combat units are sent in, the other side can reciprocate.
The deployment will be watched closely in Seoul. The idea of sending its own troops to Ukraine might be discussed in high councils. After all, its enemy is gaining combat experience and their own forces haven’t seen battle since the Vietnam War. Deployment of ROK units is possible, though not necessarily face-to-face with northerners. European troops are more likely. Brigades from Poland, the Baltic States, Finland, and other NATO powers could be sent. They are better trained and equipped than Russian and North Korean troops. The same holds for airpower and air defenses.
This is the most important conflict since 1945. World War Three has begun. The war’s outcome may be in the hands of European states. The United States cannot be relied upon to continue its role in the world.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.