Many states have been supporting various sides in Syria. This has contributed to the stalemate of the last few years. Last fall Russia upped its position by introducing airpower, and Iran did the same by sending in IRGC troops and militias it recruited from the Shia world. It’s tempting to call them mercenaries but most rebel troops are now in the employ of foreign powers.
The Russian-Iranian move is far from the first escalation in the conflict, nor will it be the last. Moscow and Tehran probably seek to stabilize the Syrian government and strengthen its position in negotiations. The move is being interpreted, probably wrongly, as a bid to reestablish Damascus’s control over the country. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the Ukraine are signaling further escalation.
Saudi Arabia
Riyadh has deployed fighter aircraft to Turkey and is conducting large-scale maneuvers in conjunction with the Emirates, Sudan, Jordan, Egypt, and several other Sunni states. Northern Thunder, as the operation is called, is taking place in the Kingdom’s north, not 
far from southern and eastern Syria, and could be preparation for an incursion toward Damascus or into the largely empty area nominally in Isilstan. The latter could set the stage for an occupied area independent of Damascus, and after a turn to the east, a similar area independent of Baghdad.
The maneuvers alone, regardless of a subsequent border crossing, will alarm Syria, Iran, and Russia. Troops may have to be drawn away from pressing battlefronts, especially Aleppo, which is likely Northern Thunder’s purpose. The IRGC may feel the need to boost its presence in Syria by several more battalions.
There may be naval and aerial sparring in the Gulf, as there was during the Iran-Iraq War of the eighties. Paradoxically, both sides would benefit from increased oil prices. From a military perspective, however, sparring can lead to punches, haymakers, and knockdowns.
Turkey
The most recent conflict between Russia and Turkey has been over the Syrian war. Russian aircraft have violated Turkish airspace more than once and one such intruder was downed by a Turkish fighter last year. More recently, Turkey has hinted at an incursion into Syria and begun shelling Syrian Kurds.
Syrian Kurds constitute one of the most complicated actors in the war. Tacitly granted autonomy by Damascus, they are aloof from most 
rebel groups and concentrate on ISIL in order to increase their standing in the world. Aided by American airpower, they dealt ISIL a serious defeat at Kobane last year. Aligned with Turkish Kurds, including the PKK, they are detested by Turkey as potential foes in a war for independence.
Russia has begun supporting Syrian Kurds with airstrikes, which raises the possibility of bombing Turkish artillery that fires on the Kurds. Moscow may see fit to recognize the Kurdish people’s right to self-determination, and support PKK fighters in their bid for independence.
This poses a dilemma in Washington. The Kurds are the most resolute enemies of ISIL but US support brings problems with Turkey, which the US relies upon for logistics and airbases in the war. It also poses a problem in NATO as the Kurdish issue causes tension between two principals in the alliance. And of course weakening NATO is Russia’s chief foreign policy objective.
The Ukraine
Lost amid the news releases and troop movements was a proposal from the Ukrainian ministry of defense to send troops into the ISIL War, possibly placing them against Russian forces. The aim is to win international support for its own conflict with Russia and to extend Russian commitments abroad.
It’s difficult to see Ukrainian troops coming into contact with Russia ground forces as the latter are ensconced in relatively secure coastal areas. Russian airpower, on the other hand, can strike anyone’s ground troops in theater, and Ukrainian troops will be a most attractive target.
Russia has a potent answer for Ukrainian actions in Syria – and in the Ukraine for that matter. A Russian armor column could strike through Belarus and near Kiev in a few days.
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.
Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing