Erdogan strikes back hard

Erdogan strikes back hard

Brian M Downing

Some Turkish troops took to the streets in an effort to oust President Erdogan, but within hours the coup feel apart. Popular rallies and inaction by most army units saw to that. Over the last week Erdogan ordered the arrests of tens of thousands of officers, judges, teachers, and bureaucrats. Tens of thousands. The president has hit back hard, and continues to do so each day.

Opposition parties, concerned over a lurch into religious authoritarianism, are holding mass rallies. The military watches as its position in society weakens. The EU is more circumspect than ever about admitting a country led by an iron-fisted leader with ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. Human Rights Watch reports incidents of illegal detainment, torture, and rape. Executions may be in the offing.

What else?

The Muslim Brotherhood in the region

Founded in the 1920s, the MB has existed, in several countries, as a secret underground movement and elsewhere as a broad-based political movement. In recent decades it has purported to be committed to democracy. While in power in Egypt, the MB acted in a majoritarian manner, in a heavy handed manner, and was driven from power in a violent coup, then outlawed.

Erdogan has hidden ties to the MB. His actions will recall those of Egypt’s Morsi, though Erdogan’s power grab exceed anything his Egyptian counterpart tried. Even well before the recent coup attempt, Erdogan was infringing on speech and assembly, causing concern at home and abroad. More recent actions have greatly increased those concerns. His claims of commitment to secularism and democracy are increasingly difficult to believe.

The Turkish president’s counter-coup will strengthen concerns with the Brotherhood elsewhere, even where it constitutes a force for positive change. In Saudi Arabia, for example, the MB’s popular support is probably greater than the royal family’s. It could play a salutary role in ending the doddering patrimonial rule of the princes. Some of the Brotherhood’s faithful there will follow the more violent path toward political change.

The Turkish military

It’s well known that the army sees itself as the embodiment, and guarantor, of the secular republicanism that Ataturk brought after the First World War. In the nation’s founding ideology, theocracy brought corruption and complacency, defeat and dismemberment. These principles are in danger.

The army’s coherence is also in danger. Colonels and generals are being detained. Their positions will be filled by new officers, making institutional coherence a thing of the past and portending a more religious military of unquestioned loyalty, but of dubious competence.

The temptation to strike back against Erdogan and his party before they do further damage must be substantial. Aside from Ataturk’s vision and institutional coherence, the military might be questioning its ability to deal with ISIL terrorism, Russian provocations, and Kurdish insurgencies, Each will likely test the turmoil in army and state in coming weeks.

Unable to deliver a swift response, the army may stand by as foreign investment slumps and public opposition to Erdogan grows.

The West

Turkey’s admission to the EU is on hold. Authoritarian governments are not welcome in the political-economic community. Nor is the prospect of free movement of workers and refugees, as Europe is facing levels of terrorism unseen since the days of the IRA, the Red Brigades, the Baader-Meinhof Gang, and of course the PLO.

NATO prefers democracy. It helped Spain put Franco behind it. However, it has looked the other way when juntas seized power in Greece and Turkey. An Islamist authoritarianism will present a more serious problem – and a nettlesome one as NATO wants a strong ally against Russia and an at least halfhearted one against ISIL.

Western leaders and publics, which are highly secular, have never trusted religious parties in the Middle East. Events of the last few years have strengthened that mistrust. Western powers will urge Erdogan to pull back from his power grab, but he is unlikely to do so. Accordingly, the West will permit economic troubles to fall on Turkey and wait for public discontent – as well as that of the army – to weaken Erdogan’s party, fervor, and grip on power.

Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing

Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.