Brian M Downing
Five weeks on, the war has changed remarkably, welcomingly, and probably irreversibly. The Russians are withdrawing from areas northwest of Kyiv, abandoning pockets of soldiers and tons of equipment. Troops around Kharkiv may soon hie north too.
Ukrainian troops will soon near the border with Belarus. This presents tremendous opportunities and some risks, just as reaching the Yalu did for the US in 1950. However, there are no spirited fresh troops to worry about and Moscow’s retreat indicates flagging confidence and unity.
Putin claimed the war was for Russia’s security, though it never was. Security is falling sharply. The war is devastating the military and bringing unprecedented unified opposition in Europe and elsewhere. Finland may join NATO soon, presenting another 500 miles of hostile periphery. Belarus may soon cause trouble, too.
Retreating Russians are still combatants. They pose significant dangers to Ukrainian soldiers and civilians and should be attacked the entire way to Belarus. Those able to make it out will continue the war in the Donbas and land bridge to Crimea.
Once the border is reached, Ukraine can continue hitting Russian troops on the other side with artillery and drones and make feints of cross-border incursions. After assessing situations there and in Moscow, Ukraine may go into Belarus, if only briefly and under the guise of accidents or hot pursuit.
Special forces can destroy bridges and railroads used to transport troops in Belarus and Russia itself. Ukraine has apparently already struck an ammunition dump and fuel depot thirty miles inside Russia. Belarusians may have already hit railroads in their country. If so, they should be supported.
New challenges in Belarus will force Putin to rethink reinforcing the Donbas. Alternately, he could get Belarusian troops to protect the border with Ukraine. However, they are mostly short-term conscripts of dubious loyalty to their commanders and government. Relying on them to hold the area could be disastrous.
Particularly vexing for Putin et al would be hostile Belarusians serving with Ukrainian troops just across the border. Thousands of them have already left their homeland to fight Russia in Ukraine. They have combat experience, friends and relatives in the Belarusian army, and hopes to come home.
An information campaign, something Kyiv excels at, can call for renewed opposition to Lukashenko, the dictator in Minsk. Only two years ago, backed by Putin, he crushed popular protests after a rigged election. Kyiv’s calls would find a receptive audience.
Concerns would spread, throughout Moscow and Minsk, that Belarus isn’t stable. The jarring shift to the West that took place in Kyiv eight years ago could be repeated in Minsk. Russia’s power has been revealed to be an immense fraud and Belarusians may no longer pay attention to the man lowering a new iron curtain.
Next: the battle for the land bridge
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.