Brian M Downing
Hamas’s attack last year was intentionally barbaric. It was intended to elicit a disproportionate response from Netanyahu and his religious-nationalist bloc and shake up the region to the advantage of Iran, Russia, and Chins. Netanyahu is doing his part. Much of Gaza has been leveled and an assault on Rafah looms. Iranian proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have joined in. A regional war is underway.
Israel’s destruction of an Iranian consulate in Damascus has escalated the war. Iran’s response with missiles and drones on Israel has done the same. Continuation and even escalation seem likely, despite the urging of the US, EU, and some regional powers.
Israel
Netanyahu must be pleased by IDF air defenses. Reports indicate that 99% of the incoming projectiles were shot down, albeit with US and UK assistance. Over three hundred missile and drones and no one was killed. Netanyahu might even feel emboldened. It doesn’t take much and moderation in defense of the nation is no virtue.
IRGC and Hisbollah positions in Syria have been struck over the years. The pace may quicken considerably. Israel may launch ballistic missiles into Iran just as Iran did into Israel a day ago – a 21st-century eye for an eye. IDF jets have flown well into Iran in the past, apparently undetected. They could bring ordnance the next time.
Netanyahu will keep animosities high and risk worsening them. He wants to continue the Gaza campaign to the conclusion he seeks and keep US-Iran tensions high – and perhaps push them to the brink or beyond.
Iran
The mullahs and generals in Tehran cannot be pleased with their display of might. Israel destroyed a consulate and killed several senior officers, probably with a single missile. Iran fired 300 missiles and drones and got virtually nothing. It only demonstrated inferiority. Iran may feel the need to attack less well-defended targets such as US positions in Iraq and Syria.
Iran has made significant political gains from the Hamas conflict and wants more. EU criticism of Israel’s Gaza campaign has become louder in recent weeks as civilian casualties rise and Israeli attacks persist. Europeans worry of regional stability, oil prices and the economy, and lone wolf attacks in their cities. Bans on arms sales are considered. Meanwhile, the US meekly demurs.
Tehran will get no calls for restraint from allies in Moscow and Beijing. The war is causing fissures in the West and presenting opportunities for them. Arab publics are incensed by the destruction of Gaza and turn to their rulers who’ve made peace with Israel. The rulers themselves are annoyed by Israel’s disregard for their sensitivities and vulnerabilities. Beijing will note advantages to reducing ties with the West and improving them with China.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.