Brian M Downing
The view here has long been that China, along with Russia, would gain influence in the Persian Gulf at the US’s expense. Beijing took an important step last week when it brokered an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reopen diplomatic ties. The UAE, another Sunni monarchy historically opposed to Iran, voiced support for the move. The implications are momentous.
Declining American influence
The US has been dominant in the region since just after World War Two when Washington felt it had expended too much domestic oil and wanted Gulf oil to help European recovery. The process continued as American consumers demanded more automobile fuel and the US quickly went from producer to importer.
In recent years, domestic production has soared and imports have plunged. The US is now a rival to oil-producing states – and one that will not cooperate in quotas. That was made clear three years ago when Riyadh boosted production to damage American shale production.
The Gulf’s significance to the US has changed from a source of energy to a purchaser of weaponry. Each year Sunni princes buy billions of sophisticated arms. Their goal is less to build effective armies than to gain influence with US corporations and lobbies.
Rising Chinese influence
China has replaced the US as main purchaser of the region’s oil. Beijing has built pipelines from the Gulf to the Red Sea, petrochemical plants, and port infrastructure. China has become an industrial giant and will be importing copious amounts of oil for a generation at least. That brings clout.
China imports from both sides of the Shia-Sunni split and sees sectarian squabbles as needless problems for energy security and the long march back to preeminence. This positioned Beijing to negotiate the embassy deal. Beijing seeks to reestablish, on its terms, the “twin pillars” strategy whereby the US kept sectarian conflicts in check and oil exports on line.
China’s chief ally, Russia, brings cooperation on oil quotas and potential support for internal repression, especially from the Wagner Group. Putin’s mercenaries bolster friendly governments and suppress opponents in N Africa and the Middle East. Gulf leaders, suspicious of their populaces and soldiers as well, have been watching.
Potentials
China has built a measure of trust with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – a remarkable achievement that could lead to further diplomatic and geopolitical gains. The war in Yemen has been a stalemate for several years. China could help bring about a truce between the Shia north and Sunni south.
China could prevail upon Iran to pull back from its nuclear program and avoid US-Israeli strikes. Presumably, after the embassy accords, the Saudis no longer support attacking Iran. This would further improve Beijing’s diplomatic credentials and corner Washington and Jerusalem as the source of tensions which hinder regional development in China’s co-prosperity sphere.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.