Kurdistan stays its hand, for now

Brian M Downing Kurdistan will stay within an Iraqi political framework, at least for now. After years of conflict, including being on the brink of war, Iraq and Kurdistan have signed an agreement for sharing oil revenues. The deal allows the Kurds to export their oil and gives them a Read More …

Iran versus the Islamic State

Brian M Downing The Islamic State (IS) offensive in Iraq has been blunted. Kurdish troops and the Iraqi national army have even made slow progress in pushing IS back. US and allied airpower has played an important role, hitting IS positions and convoys hard. However, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Read More …

The price of oil and the future of Syria

Brian M Downing  The world, it would be fair to say, is in disarray. Most economies are sluggish, political paralysis and decay are everywhere, and appallingly brutal militant groups are on the march. Nonetheless, despite fighting near vital oil fields in the Gulf region, the price of oil – inordinately Read More …

Ground troops in Iraq, again?

Brian M Downing  Three years after US troops left Iraq, Washington is considering reintroducing ground troops to fight the Islamic State. Not advisers, not beefed up embassy details; regular infantry and special forces battalions. IS’s bold victories contrast with the tired proclamations of aging al Qaeda leaders, and with the Read More …

Obama, Iraq, and the Gulf region

Brian M Downing On taking the reins of power in January 2009, the Obama administration wanted to be rid of the Iraq war which its predecessor elected to begin six years earlier. The new and reasonably democratically-elected government in Baghdad had already ordered US troops out by the end of Read More …

The Afghan army faces the Taliban alone (but with US airpower)

  Brian M Downing  Western ground combat forces in Afghanistan will be gone by the end of this year. British and United States units are furling their guidons and boarding transport planes for the journey home. Concern over the ability of the Afghan National Army (ANA) to stand up against Read More …

ISIL and Sunni autonomy

Brian M Downing  The Islamic State offensive in Iraq has been blunted, but forming an effective counteroffensive has proved elusive. That will first require a political agreement among the antagonistic Shia, Kurdish, and Sunni peoples. The Sunnis are only about 15% of Iraq’s population, they are despised by the others, Read More …

The West’s expectations of Sunni monarchies

 Brian M Downing The unexpected Islamic State offensive into Iraq has rattled capitals and altered political dynamics in the Gulf. Led by Saudi Arabia, the Sunni monarchies were moving away from the United States owing to its support for democracy in the region and its effort to reopen ties with Read More …

One door closes, another opens for IS

 Brian M Downing The Islamic State’s fearsome offensive in northern and central Iraq has stalled owing to indigenous ground troops and Western airpower. In some places, IS has been forced to retreat, beginning a new phase in its effort to bring unification to Muslims of the world, whether they want Read More …

The Islamic State’s offensive stalls

Brian M Downing The Islamic State’s fearsome offensive in northern and central Iraq has stalled owing to indigenous ground troops and western airpower. In some places, IS has been forced to retreat, beginning a new phase in its effort to bring unification to Muslims of the world, whether they want Read More …